Following another exciting NFL season, the offseason is here, which of course means it is a perfect time to learn more about wagering, the different forms of it, and how beginners can confidently get into the action. In this report, OSB will be covering the nuances of moneyline wagering and what it can mean for you if you decide to use it to your advantage in your recreational time. There are several different ways to wager on the NFL, as some know and perhaps have read about, these categories include point spreads, totals, props, parlays, futures, and also live betting markets (which are perhaps the most volatile, but this author digresses). However, one of the simplest and most popular options remains the NFL moneyline wager. If you are not in the know, and perhaps the reason you are here, the moneyline wager is straightforward, as a customer picks which team will win the game outright, without needing to worry about the point spread or the margin of victory.
This will be covered later in the report, NFL moneyline wagering still offers plenty of strategy and depth. Of course, favorites may provide safer outcomes at smaller odds, while underdogs can offer larger payouts when a matchup appears closer than the market suggests. In many instances, moneyline is perhaps the most common and used category of wagering, as it is the most straightforward to understand, and many casual betting patrons prefer this option. This is especially the case during high-profile NFL events like the Super Bowl. So, when you attend your next party for the "Big Game" make sure to read this guide so you sound a little smarter about the moneyline odds for not only the matchup itself, but also other props as well. If anyone cares to listen, that is, which of course they will provided you bring the best Super Bowl party food.
What is moneyline betting, and why should you care?
Though there is no textbook definition of moneyline betting in Webster's Dictionary, in its simplest form, it is merely selecting the winner of a certain game or matchup. In fact, according to various national sports media sources with huge gaming partners, moneyline wagering is one of the most popular ways to wager on NFL matchups. Perhaps the biggest difference, though in relation to other forms of wagering is that consumers do not need to worry about point spreads or margins of victory. As stated above, they simply need to select the team that will win the game outright, and if the team wins, the bet cashes in. If they lose, well then you are out of luck.
Each NFL game has moneyline odds to each team for a given weekly matchup and even attached to futures betting markets (which we will get to at a later time). Favorites are typically listed with negative odds (like -110), while underdogs carry positive odds. Those numbers very much determine both the implied probability of winning and how much a bettor can potentially profit from the wager. Of course, though the concept is easy to follow, the odds themselves and their movement are what make moneyline wagering compelling on a weekly basis.
So, why should you care? For many beginners, moneyline wagering is often the easiest entry point into NFL wagering because it removes some of the variables associated with point spreads and other categories that are a tad more advanced, like parlays, points totals, over/unders, etc. In these instances, patrons are simply selecting a team to win the game, in the preseason (but who wants that?), regular season, playoffs, and of course, the Super Bowl.
How to bet on NFL games moneyline
Learning how to bet on NFL games moneyline is simple because you are only picking which team will win the game outright. Unlike point spread betting, the margin of victory does not matter.
Here is a quick example:
- Kansas City Chiefs -150
- Buffalo Bills +130
If you bet on the Chiefs at -150, you would need to risk $150 to win $100 in profit. If you bet on the Bills at +130, a $100 wager would win $130 in profit if Buffalo wins outright.
To place an NFL moneyline bet, follow these steps:
- Select the NFL game you want to bet on.
- Choose which team you think will win outright.
- Review the moneyline odds for both teams.
- Enter your wager amount.
- Place the bet and wait for the final result.
Many beginners prefer NFL moneyline betting because it is one of the easiest wager types to understand. You do not need to worry about point spreads or winning margins. Your team simply needs to win the game.
How do I interpret moneyline odds?
Understanding NFL moneyline odds becomes much easier once you look at a real example. Let’s say the Kansas City Chiefs are listed at -150 against the Buffalo Bills at +130. The Chiefs are the favorite in this matchup. At -150 odds, you would need to risk $150 to win $100 in profit. Meanwhile, the Bills are the underdog at +130, meaning a $100 wager would return $130 in profit if Buffalo wins outright.
Moneyline odds also reflect implied probability. Negative odds suggest the sportsbook believes that team has a higher chance of winning, while positive odds indicate the underdog. These odds can move throughout the week based on injuries, betting activity, weather conditions, and other factors that influence the expected outcome of the game.
For beginners, NFL moneyline betting is often easier to understand than point spread wagering because you only need to predict which team will win the game outright, rather than the margin of victory.
Indeed, and this is touched on later in the article, but keeping an eye on odds of how moves throughout the week leading up to a particular matchup should also give you an idea of who is the favorite and by how much. Indeed, should a bet cash in, then the OSB payment methods breakdown is a fantastic source for eligible customers looking to get their cash flow rolling.
What happens to a moneyline bet if an NFL game ties?
One common beginner question is what happens to a moneyline bet if an NFL game ends in a tie. In most regular-season NFL games, a tie result means standard moneyline wagers are voided, and sportsbooks typically refund the original stake to bettors.
For example, if you bet on the Steelers moneyline and they finish tied after overtime, the wager is usually graded as a push rather than a win or loss.
However, rules can vary slightly between sportsbooks, especially for parlays or special betting markets. Because of that, it is always smart to review the house rules before placing NFL moneyline wagers.
Playoff games are different because NFL postseason matchups cannot end in a tie. Overtime continues until a winner is determined, meaning moneyline bets will always have a winning and losing side during the playoffs.
Understanding how NFL moneylines are set
At first glance, NFL moneylind odds might look random; however, there is actually a significant amount of information that goes into creating them each week. With gambling becoming a much more prominent part of life in the United States, the factors that go into these odds are numerous, but a few stand out. Sportsbooks are constantly evaluating team strength, injuries, betting trends, matchup data, and public perception before posting the opening numbers for each matchup. Additionally, as new information comes into the fold throughout the week, like important players being held out at practice, odds can typically shift leading up to kickoff.
Another factor that goes beyond just subjective elements is objective analytical metrics like statistical modeling. Sportsbooks then use their own analytics to evaluate offensive and defensive efficiencies (including newer age categories like DVOA, OVOA), home-field advantage, along with injuries, weather conditions, and perhaps other situational instances like suspensions.
However, and this is an important note for shifting lines, sportsbooks do not solely rely on computers and algorithms for the final interpretation of odds on a certain contest. Public wagering activity can also influence movement, especially in games involving popular squads like the Cowboys, Steelers, Chiefs, or Eagles. What's more is that NFL moneyline betting often features sportsbooks using similar third-party data providers to help influence their own markets. Interestingly, this is why markets are often fairly similar across sportsbooks, though there are minor differences to each as it pertains to betting volume and volatility. An important note to keep in mind is that these odds can shift and move regularly as they are supposed to represent the predicted outcome of that particular NFL contest.
Moneyline vs Point Spread Betting
Many beginners compare moneyline betting to point spread betting when wagering on NFL games. While both are popular, they work very differently. With a moneyline bet, you are simply picking which team will win the game outright. The margin of victory does not matter.
Point spread betting adds a handicap to the matchup. Favorites must win by more than the spread, while underdogs can lose by a certain number of points and still cover.
For example, if the Eagles are -7 against the Giants, Philadelphia must win by at least 8 points for a spread bet to cash. However, if you bet the Eagles moneyline, they only need to win the game by any amount.
Because of its simplicity, many beginners start with NFL moneyline betting before moving into spreads, parlays, and other advanced wager types.
Make sure to have an open mind to each side
Over time, it might be easy to fall into the trap of only picking heavy favorites, underdogs, or perhaps flip-flopping the two. Unlike college football, where there are sometimes large chasms of difference in talent, NFL squads are filled with elite athletes, which can make the margin for error very thin each Sunday. This is why often times you will see point spreads that do not drift very far between -1 to -4 or -5. However, should a matchup between an injury-depleted squad and a Super Bowl favorite present itself, like say the New York Jets facing the New England Patriots, then the point spread will be higher. This, though, might actually be in your favor as a higher point spread in the NFL means lower odds for the moneyline, but perhaps a clearer winner to be had.
In any case, upsets do happen on a regular basis in the NFL, which is why diversifying your strategy is always a good idea for each matchup as opposed to going on autopilot. Another great example of this is the volatility of the final week of the NFL regular season. During this period, many teams are resting their starters to prep for the playoffs, while those on the edge of the postseason are scratching and clawing their way. So, one would assume the hungry dog running faster for a playoff spot would be a wiser pick here for NFL moneyline betting, and why having the pulse on the NFL sportsbooks rundown is a great idea to stay on top of things.
Insider tips for NFL Moneyline betting in 2026
Regarding NFL moneyline betting, most bettors are looking for some straightforward process and natural rhythm, which, of course, can be hard to find during the chaotic NFL season. However, savvy fans of NFL moneyline wagers know that having practical knowledge of matchups and team momentum is usually more favorable than betting based on emotions and impulse. In fact, a common mistake most consumers make is just going strictly off of "vibes" versus having a more analytical breakdown of which team will perform better in the spotlight. Indeed, should things start to go sideways, that approach could take a toll on someone's wallet over the course of the NFL season.
Regarding ways to make these wagers more efficient, a couple of strategies come to mind. Of course, every squad has strengths and weaknesses, along with momentum and the ever-present injury report in the NFL. Take, for example, a struggling squad like the Las Vegas Raiders heading into a primetime matchup against the battle-tested Broncos or Chiefs on the road. In instances like this, Las Vegas would be a huge plus underdog to some of the top contenders in the AFC, given their historical lack of solid quarterback play and inconsistencies on offense and defense. While the overall odds in this matchup might not be as juicy as some others during the NFL calendar, it could still present an opportunity to score an easy win (sorry, Raiders).
Placing NFL moneyline wagers
Placing moneyline NFL wagers is a very straightforward process for eligible customers. Of course, should anything remain uncertain, the OSB FAQ's guide below is here to answer any questions you might have. Additionally, there is an array of reviews and resources that patrons will find helpful on the best sportsbooks review guide to find which outlet makes the most sense for them.
