Is Tom Brady Really the Favorite to Win 2022 NFL MVP Award?

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Is Tom Brady Really the Favorite to Win 2022 NFL MVP Award?

As the end of the 2021 calendar year draws ever closer, the betting odds for the NFL get more and more interesting. Indeed, you should definitely be interested in weekly game picks and odds on the NFL playoffs. But now is also a great time to tackle 2021 NFL player futures.

In other words: It's NFL awards season. And as we prep our latest edition of NFL player futures, we find ourselves wondering whether Tom Brady is really the favorite to win the 2021 NFL MVP award.

Settling on a prediction for 2021 NFL MVP is our only mission in this exercise. And we will begin, like always, by taking a look at the latest NFL MVP betting odds from the folks over at BetOnline:

MVP PickBetOnline
Tom Brady+125
Aaron Rodgers+600
Kyler Murray+800
Matthews Stafford+1000
Jonathan Taylor+1000
Josh Allen+1200
Dak Prescott+1600
Patrick Mahomes+1800
Justin Herbert+2200
Lamar Jackson+3300
Mac Jones+10000
Kirk Cousins+12500

Since these NFL MVP odds are accurate as of games played through Week 14, you'll want to confirm they don't move before making your official NFL MVP prediction. Though these types of NFL betting lines don't tend to swing all that wildly so late in the season, they can shift—particularly when there's not a super-heavy consensus favorite.

Prior to making your 2021 NFL MVP picks, you should also consider going through our reviews of the top online sports betting sites. They are loaded with information and advice that can help you identify a permanent home for all of your NFL betting.

2021 NFL MVP Prediction

Here's a piece of free football betting advice: No matter which 2021 NFL MVP prediction you wind up leaning toward, you should ultimately make sure you're selecting a quarterback.

This sounds like hyperbole. After all, why shouldn't you take a look at Jonathan Taylor (+1000), the running back for the Indianapolis Colts. He has no doubt been one of the NFL's most valuable talents all year.

And yet, while true, no player or position holds more influence over the outcome of a game and season than the quarterback. Defense is a team effort, and on offense, the QB is tasked with making the most reads and, a majority of the time, the most difficult plays.

Don't take our word for it, though. Just look at past NFL MVP winners. Since 2007, only one non-quarterback has won the award: Running back Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings in 2012. Every other NFL MVP during this nearly 15-year span has been a quarterback. We don't expect that to change now.

Nor, for that matter, do those in charge of cobbling together odds on NFL player futures. As our NFL MVP odds from above show you, only one non-QB even makes the list. The question isn't whether a QB will win. It's which QB will win.

Should Tom Brady be NFL MVP Favorite?

It makes sense that Tom Brady (+125) is the NFL MVP favorite.

Voters tend to flock toward the best player on the best team, and Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers have filled a void at the top of the NFL, as the closest thing to a Super Bowl lock it boasts.

This, of course, doesn't mean Brady will win. But being the most important player on what many pundits consider the league's best team is a good place to start.

Tom Brady To win 2021 NFL MVP

Better MVP Bet: Kyler Murray or Aaron Rodgers

Bettors shouldn't read too much into Aaron Rodgers (+600) having the odds-on edge over Kyle Murray (+800). The moneylines at sportsbooks factor in not only likelihood, but popularity. And Aaron Rodgers, the reigning MVP, is more of a household name than Kyle Murray.

Yet, it's actually Murray who's the better candidate.

Whereas the Green Bay Packers attack has stalled at points this season, particularly at the beginning of the year, Murray is the primary signal-caller for the NFL's third-ranked offense in points per game. And you better believe he's the driving force of the Arizona Cardinals scoring so much. Murray is completing more than 72 percent of his throws and has a passer rating that boggles the mind. 

He is a much better MVP bet than Rodgers.

Kyle Murray To win 2021 NFL MVP

Is Lamar Jackson a Viable MVP Bet?

It wasn't long ago that Lamar Jackson (+3300) seemed like the MVP favorite. He ranked in the top 10 of both rushing yards and passing yards, an unheard-of feat, and was piloting what looked like a genuine Super Bowl contender in the Baltimore Ravens.

Oh, how times have changed. Though the Ravens are still the toast of the AFC North, that's not actually saying much. Their offense has also suffered a stark decline in recent weeks, which debilitates Jackson's case.

To make matters worse, Lamar Jackson left Week 14's game with an injury and was unable to return. If he misses any time to close the year, his case could go up in flames.

Lamar Jackson To win 2021 NFL MVP

2021 NFL MVP Pick

Picking against Tom Brady is tough. His completion percentage is the second highest of his career, and he hasn't posted this high of a passer rating in more than a half-decade.

That isn't quite enough to deter us from rolling with Murray. He may not be a mainstream favorite, but he definitely has the attention of NFL diehards. No one is completing a higher percentage of their passes on the season, and despite everyone's love for Tampa Bay, it's Arizona that currently has the league's best record.

OSB Prediction: Kyle Murray (+800)

Kyle Murray To win 2021 NFL MVP

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your NFL betting:

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high sch...

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