Electoral College Predictions That Will Pay Out

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Mar 7, 2024 07:00 PM
Electoral College Predictions That Will Pay Out

We’re eight months away from the U.S. Presidential election. One of the best ways to get action on it isn’t even picking who wins between Donald Trump or Joe Biden. No, the better bet is how the electoral college votes shake out. We have some 2024 predictions so keep on reading!

Electoral College Betting Odds

As we all know, the electoral college determines who the U.S. presidential winner is — not a popular vote tally. Each state is worth a different amount of “points” based on their population. For example, New York is worth 29 points, while a smaller state like Idaho is worth just four. In total, there are 538 points. You can actually bet on electoral college outcomes at top political betting sites.

These are over/under bets in the same way you’d bet on an NFL or NBA score. Here are the two current electoral college bets now available:

Republican VotesBovadaBetUSMyBookie
Over 311.5 Votes+250+250+250
Under 311.5 Votes-400-400-400
Democrat VotesBovadaBetUSMyBookie
Over 269.5 Votes-115-115-115
Under 269.5 Votes-125-125-125

As you can tell above, oddsmakers are firmly favoring a Donald Trump victory in 2024. He indeed leads most of the early election polls and in turn, the betting odds for the general election. Trump has swept through the GOP primaries and has officially forced every opposing candidate to back out.

Biden, meanwhile, has run unopposed in primaries and won easily so. All this is to say a rematch between Biden and Trump is all but guaranteed for November. Here’s how you can bank money off that when betting.

Best Bets For Electoral College

All right, the best way to bet this electoral college wager is to hone in on the “battleground states.” Realistically, five or so states will determine who wins the election and the result of this bet. These states can swing in either direction — unlike California which is voting blue or Texas voting red, both of those are givens. Let’s quickly look at how some of these states might swing:

Arizona: in 2020, Biden bested Trump in Arizona by 0.3 percent of the vote. If we had to pick though, we say Trump turns the state red this year. The hot-button issue inside the state is immigration and the border. Trump won big on this issue in 2016 and it’s become a talking point again after a flood of illegal immigration on the southern border — which Arizona residents see first-hand. Recency bias will help Trump out here.

Georgia: for a long time, Georgia was a tried-and-true red state. That time is up, hence why Biden won here by 0.3 percent too (Democrats also cleaned house in non-presidential elections). Georgia is also one of the states that is suing Donald Trump. This case focuses on him allegedly attempting to overturn the state results in 2020. These factors lead us to believe that Georgia will be won again by Biden, who gets 16 electoral votes (Arizona only has 11).

Michigan: this state is worth 16 electoral votes. In 2020, Biden won quite convincingly by almost 3 percent — a big jump from 2016 when Trump topped Hilary Clinton by just 11,000 votes. Per usual, Michigan cares most about manufacturing and its car industry. Last year, many of these blue-collar workers went on strike, which Biden fully supported, aligning with unionization efforts. Again, we see that favorably for Biden’s chances at a repeat victory.

Pennsylvania: this state, which’s worth 19 votes, feels like a total toss-up. That’s because the state is very divided between the rural blue-collar class and urban city dwellers. Biden is from the state, but Trump feels more blue-collar due to his pro-oil policies that matter dearly to Pennsylvania’s rust belt. At the same time, city folks in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have a much more liberal bond. Early polls have this state dead even and we share that anything-can-happen belief.

So as you can see, we feel this election is going down to the wire again. We don’t buy any of these polls that have Trump comfortably beating out Biden. No way. The Democrats should overperform as they did during the 2022 midterms. We say bet the under on the Republicans electoral college votes, while the over for the Democrats one. This should pay if the election is as close as we believe it will be.

Under 311.5 electoral votes for Republicans in 2024 presidential election
-400
BetUS

Over 269.5 electoral votes for Democrats in 2024 presidential election
-400
BetUS

How To Bet On U.S. Presidential Election?

There’s only one place you can bet on the U.S. presidential election and that’s offshore bookies. Regulated sportsbooks, at least in the United States, are not allowed to offer these lines. So if you want action, we suggest one of the five bookies listed below. Per our latest sportsbook reviews, these are the “best of the best” for this type of wagering.

The thing is they offer all types of bets surrounding politics. This means multiple markets — so U.S. politics and also international affairs. Within these markets, there’s also a variety of bets. So the U.S. election, for instance, you can bet on the Vice President or individual state results, among other things. To see the full gamut of odds available, visit one of the bookmakers below.

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...

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