Could the Denver Broncos suddenly be positioned to make a run at a wild card spot in the 2023 NFL playoffs? Their 4-5 record suggests no. But their play over the past few weeks implies they might have a real push in them.
Granted, sitting one game under .500, the Broncos are fourth in the AFC West division. Their margin for error is nonexistent. Every game is seemingly a must-win. That includes their Week 11 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. These two teams will be squaring off in the Sunday Night Football showcase, on November 19, at 8:15 p.m. eastern standard time, on Empire Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado. And as of now, the latest NFL online betting odds have the Broncos favored to beat the Vikings:
Please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Broncos vs. Vikings Week 11 betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, November 15. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on Sunday night.
Entering as the favorite is a big deal for Denver. They have entered with leading odds just five times this year. And for what it’s worth, they are 2-3 in those performances.
Do the Broncos warrant the benefit of the doubt as they prepare to host the Vikings? Or will Minnesota build on top of what is currently a five-game winning streak and a stretch in which they’ve won six of seven? Let’s find out.
Do the Denver Broncos Actually Have the Overall Advantage Against the Minnesota Vikings?
Just so we’re clear: It is not surprising, at all, that the Broncos are odds-on favorites to beat the Vikings in Week 11. They are playing at home, working off a bye week and on a three-game win streak that includes victories over the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. To top it all off, the Vikings remain without star wideout Justin Jefferson and won’t have quarterback Kirk Cousins for the rest of the season. Joshua Dobbs, who came over at the trade deadline, will be starting in his stead.
Circumstances seem to benefit the Broncos. And to some extent, they do. But the Vikings have yet to lose without Cousins under center. In the two games he’s missed so far, they hung 31 points on the Atlanta Falcons and then 27 points on the New Orleans Saints. Minnesota’s defense has done some of the heavy lifting, forcing two turnovers in each game. But the offense has shined on the merits of 270 combined rushing yards and a Dobbs Week 10 debut that saw him throw for 268 yards and net 44 more on the ground. Betting against them is not for the faint of heart.
And yet, we’re going to do it anyway.
Color us sold on the Broncos’ recent turnaround. Though they still rank dead last in points allowed per game, that placement is fueled by the 70 points they allowed to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3. They have not been a different team ever since, but they are surrendering just 15 points per game over their past three. That’s a pretty big accomplishment when you consider two of those contests came against the Chiefs and Bills.
OSB Prediction: Denver Broncos (-130)
Should You Roll the Dice on Denver’s Point Spread in Week 11?
Initially, we thought this game had the makings of a one-point spread. It doesn’t. Here’s a look at the latest NFL Week 11 point spread betting lines:
- Denver Broncos, -2.5 (-105)
- Minnesota Vikings, +2.5 (-115)
Bettors have so far skewed toward the Minnesota Vikings point spread. That suggests a level of distrust in the Broncos—which is, again, fair. Minnesota is suddenly reliant on the rushing game, and that continues to be a weakness of Denver’s defense. Especially when it comes to containing quarterbacks.
Denver’s offense concerns us to boot. They don’t turn the ball over and rank third in total passing touchdowns, but they’re not big-play material. The Broncos are 20th in net yards per pass attempt, and Russell Wilson has thrown about as many 20-plus-yard completions as Zach Wilson of the New York Jets. Even so, Denver does know how to control the flow of games and balance passing plays against rushing attempts and QB scrambles. Beyond that, we have to imagine the Vikings’ luck when they’re this shorthanded will eventually run out.
The Broncos nevertheless have the higher ceiling through the air. Dobbs is too much of a question mark under center for the Vikings. He presumably won’t complete almost 70 percent of his passes forever. And given how well Wilson has fared when rolling out in recent weeks, we wouldn’t be surprised if Denver wins this by a full touchdown.
OSB Prediction: Denver Broncos, -2.5 (-105)
Is the Vikings Offense For Real, and What Does That Mean for Their Point Total Against the Broncos?
A handful of Denver Broncos over/under betting lines have checked in under 41 points. Their Week 11 tilt with the Minnesota Vikings isn’t one of them:
- Over 43.5 (-108)
- Under 43.5 (-112)
While Denver’s offense has perked up recently, this point total is too much of a stretch. Their improved defense is part of the equation. The Broncos haven’t surrendered more than 22 points since Week 5.
Plus, since the Vikings are more reliant on ground plays these days, the pace of play lends itself to a smaller final score. If this point total came in at 40.5 or lower we’d be harder-pressed to make a decision. Right now, though, we’re going with the “under.”
Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2023 NFL betting: