Following an unexpected Week 1 loss to the Detroit Lions, is it time to panic about the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs ahead of their Week 2 matchup with the rising Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, September 17, at 1 p.m. eastern standard time, on the field of EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida?
The obvious answer is: Of course not! The longer answer is more complicated. There appear to be real concerns about the Chiefs on the heels of their latest loss. These worries may be enough to impact betting on who wins the Super Bowl. Seriously.
But are these concerns enough to bank on them losing against a surging Jacksonville? The latest NFL online betting odds do not think so:
Always remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars betting odds are accurate as of Tuesday, September 12. That gives the best online sportsbooks in the United States plenty of time to make changes between now and opening kickoff.
As much as any other Week 2 NFL matchup, we could definitely see the Chiefs vs. Jaguars betting lines undergoing some wholesale shifts. Jacksonville’s offense is on the ascent, and Calvin Ridley’s Week 1 detonation gives them a quartet of pass-catchers who can elevate the performance of star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Kansas City, meanwhile, is still waiting for word on whether star tight end Travis Kelce will return from a hyperextended knee injury that prevented him from suiting up in the loss to Detroit.
Which team should you bet on to win in Week 2? Let’s get to our picks for Chiefs vs. Jaguars, which just might be the most exciting game of the week.
Don’t Panic About the State of the Kansas City Chiefs…Yet
The Chiefs’ surprising loss to the Lions unnerved a lot of people. Patrick Mahomes didn’t look great under center. He wasn’t able to get rid of the ball as quickly, and his playmaking didn’t pop with its usual gusto. Head coach Andy Reid received criticism for some of his play-calling, as well.
What really did in the Chiefs, though, was their surfeit of dropped passes. Bill Barnewell outlined just how poor they were with their ball control for ESPN:
“Kansas City receivers dropped 10.3 percent of Mahomes' passes Thursday night, which is almost triple their career average. In the past, though, that in itself hasn't disqualified the Chiefs from winning games. Mahomes had dealt with 17 previous games in which his receivers had dropped at least 7 percent of his pass attempts. He had won all 17 of those games before this matchup with Detroit. In that famous 51-31 divisional round comeback over the Texans, his receivers dropped 14.3 percent of his passes. It didn't matter because the Chiefs were otherwise close to perfect on offense.”
These struggles are a mixed bag. On the one hand, Chiefs receivers shouldn’t be that drop-happy ever again. On the other hand, there were other worries. Kansas City, for instance, only generated five plays of at least 20 yards, which is well below their average. Could this be a sign of systematic decline? We’re betting no. It probably had more to do with the absence of Kelce. And while he isn’t guaranteed to suit up in Week 2, fewer dropped passes alone should give the Chiefs enough ammo to snag a victory.
OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-172)
Should You Respect the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Upset Potential?
Here the latest NFL point spread betting odds for Jaguars vs. Chiefs:
- Kansas City Chiefs, -3 (-110)
- Jacksonville Jaguars, +3 (-110)
We don’t mean to dismiss the Jaguars. Their offense looks legitimately terrifying. Lawrence has never been more confident when threading the needle downfield. Picking against Jacksonville may actually look blasphemous if Kelce doesn’t suit up for the Chiefs.
Still, this isn’t just about how we expect Kansas City’s offense to settle down. It’s about a defense that’s clearly on the climb. They made some big plays against Detroit in Week 1, limited the Lions’ success on the ground and took away plenty of passing options in the Red Zone. With star defensive tackle Chris Jones officially ending his holdout, the Chiefs should be even better off on defense in Week 2. That gives them enough to create some real separation on the scoreboard.
OSB Prediction: Kansas Chiefs, -3 (-110)
The Chiefs Defense Could Be in for a Big Day vs. the Jaguars
Below you can see the latest NFL over/under betting odds for Chiefs vs. Jaguars:
- Over 51.5 (-110)
- Under 51.5 (-110)
Not surprisingly, this is the highest over/under mark for Week 2. Also not surprisingly, we’re a little hesitant to take the “over.”
So many factors stand to drive the score down. What if Travis Kelce doesn’t play? What if the Chiefs respond to their Week 1 struggles by taking even fewer shots down the field? What if Kansas City’s defense continues busting through opposing frontlines? What if the Jaguars keep relying on the rushing attack to set up the passing game? And what if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t complete 75 percent of his passes like he did in Week 1?
One of these teams should top 25 points. But at least one of these offenses could experience a dip relative to what they did last week. We’ll (cautiously) take the “under.” This feels like a classic case of an overaggressive market reacting to a clash of two elite offenses.
OSB Prediction: Under 51.5 (-110)
Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2023 NFL betting needs: