Mexico Open Picks: Tony Finau a Clear Favorite to Win Tournament

Quinn Allen
By , Updated on: Feb 21, 2024 12:00 AM
Mexico Open picks
  • What: Mexico Open
  • When: February 22nd-25th
  • Where: Vidanta Vallarta, Los Cabos

The PGA Tour heads south this weekend to one of the prettiest courses around in Los Cabos for the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta. Numerous big names aren't participating in the event, giving others a chance to shine and make a statement. Heading into the tournament, Tony Finau is a clear-cut favorite to win at +800, while young Dane Nicolai Hojgaard comes in at +1600 amid his impressive form. Others expected to be in contention include Emiliano Grillo, Stephen Jaeger, Keith Mitchell, and Tayloe Pendrith. Below, we'll lay out the preview and Mexico Open picks.

Before we get into the odds and predictions for the event, make sure to check out our top golf betting sites and our Golf odds page.

Mexico Open Odds

PlayerBetOnlineBovadaBetUS
Tony Finau+800+800+800
Nicolai Hojgaard+1600+1400+1600
Emiliano Grillo+2500+2500+2500
Stephan Jaeger+2500+2000+2200
Keith Mitchell+2500+2200+2500
Taylor Pendrith+2500+2500+2500
Thomas Detry+2800+2500+2500
Thorbjorn Olesen+3300+3000+3000
Patrick Rodgers+3500+3500+3500
Erik Van Rooyen+3500+3000+3300

The Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 that totals 7,456 yards. Finau is the defending champion after beating out Spaniard John Rahm by three shots last year. Rahm, who just left for LIV Golf, won the 2022 edition. This is one of the most unpredictable courses on the PGA Tour, so it should be an interesting event overall.

Tony Finau (+800)

Finau is playing very well at the moment. He just finished top-20 at the Genesis Invitational and as previously mentioned, won this tournament last season. Currently ranked 24th on the tour, Finau hasn't actually finished in first place since winning the Mexico Open but he's trending in the right direction. Finau was 25th at the American Express early last month, sixth at the Farmers Insurance Open the next week, and then 19th at Genesis. There's been improvement. This is a clear opportunity for Finau to finish at the top of the leaderboard when the likes of Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and others aren't participating in Mexico. We'll see if the veteran can take advantage and produce a victory on a course he's had success on.

Nicolai Hojgaard (+1600)

Hojgaard has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but the youngster was part of Team Europe who won the Ryder Cup while also capturing top spot at the DP World Tour Championship in the fall. The 22-year-old was a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines and as one of the youngest players on the Tour, he looks to be one to watch as the season rolls on here. While Hojgaard was out of the top 20 in his last two PGA Tour events, the competition was a lot tougher. It's a weaker field this week, which means he could fare a lot better. Definitely keep an eye on Hojgaard in the Mexico Open picks.

Emiliano Grillo (+2500)

Grillo is in good form lately, finishing top-25 in four straight events in January and February. The Sony Open, Farmers Insurance Open, Pebble Beach, and the Phoenix Open. When it comes to the Mexico Open, he owns finishes of fifth and 33rd across the last two years. Grillo's last victory was in the summer of 2023 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Grillo was just 44th at the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles.

Stephan Jaeger (+2500)

It's been a respectable start to 2024 for Jaeger. He finished on the podium at the Farmers Insurance Open and 18th at the Sony Open. While he didn't perform that well at Pebble Beach, the German comes in fresh. He hasn't participated in a tournament for a couple of weeks here. When it comes to the Mexico Open, he's finished in the top 20 in his two appearances over the last couple of years. In 2023, he was 18th. Perhaps Jaeger will be in the podium mix. Whether it's to win outright or another bet, it's probably worth putting a bit of money down on him.

Thorbjorn Olesen (+3300)

This will be the first PGA Tour event of the season for Olesen, another Dane who has been opening eyes on the DP World Tour. He won last month in his latest appearance, giving him some momentum heading into the PGA here. Again, with a weaker field, the 34-year-old could be in contention here. Overall, he's won two tournaments in his last 25 starts. Not bad.

Mexico Open Picks

We'll make a couple of bets for the Mexico Open. I like Tony Finau outright because he does flourish here. I also think Hojgaard is worth a wager. Stick with those two for the time being.

Tony Finau To win Mexico Open
BetOnline
+800
Tony Finau To win Mexico Open
BetOnline
+1600

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Meet the author

Quinn Allen

Quinn Allen leverages his broadcast journalism degree and passion for sports in his betting previews and analysis. Based in Kelowna, Canada, he has emerged as an expert voice with picks featured on OSB, MTS, SBD, and as a ClutchPoints editor. With a lifelong fandom of...

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