Which NFL Quarterback will Finish the 2023 Regular with the Most Passing Touchdowns?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Which NFL Quarterback will Finish the 2023 Regular with the Most Passing Touchdowns?

We are entering crunch time of the 2023 NFL regular season. And that means it’s a great opportunity to start betting on NFL props.

Most will focus on team superlatives: The best bets to win Super Bowl 58, division champions, conference champions and odds to make the NFL playoffs. That’s fine. We love those props. But the competitive landscape narrows with each passing week. That limits both the field of options and scope of payouts when betting on Super Bowl winners and the like. 

Zeroing in on player races can be more profitable. So many statistical leaders are attempting to fend off counterparts in close proximity. And the NFL odds on which quarterback will lead the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards is no different. 

We’re going to drop our best bets and predictions for both categories. But let’s first get things started by looking at the latest NFL online betting odds for which QB will lead the league in total passing touchdowns.

QB to Have Most Passing TDsBetOnline
Dak Prescott+200
Tua Tagovailoa+380
Josh Allen+380
Patrick Mahomes+600
Brock Purdy+700
Jordan Love+2200
C.J. Stroud+2200
Russell Wilson+220
Justin Herbert+2200
Jared Goff+2200
Jalen Hurts+3500
Baker Mayfield+6000
Sam Howell+7500
Matthew Stafford+10000
Geno Smith+10000
Lamar Jackson+15000
Justin Fields+15000

As always, please double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our online NFL props are accurate entering Wednesday, December 6. The regular season will not end until Sunday, January 7. The best NFL online betting sites will continue shifting their odds on the most passing touchdowns every week as games unfold and the leaderboard changes.

As of now, Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys (+2000) stands above the rest of the field. But even he, the odds-on favorite, currently pays out 2-to-1. That’s because his position is far from secure. Flamethrowers such as Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins (+380), Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills (+380), Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs (+600) and others are hot on his tail.

Which of these QB1s will lead the NFL in total passing touchdowns by season’s end? And who among the league’s signal callers will pace the field in total passing yards? Strap in, folks. It’s prediction time. 

Which QB will Lead the League in Total Touchdown Passes This Season

Dak Prescott (+200) enters Week 14 with a two-touchdown lead over the second-place Josh Allen (+380) and Tua Tagovailoa (+380). That’s not an insurmountable lead with five weeks to go.

At the same time, Prescott will be pretty tough to upend. The Cowboys offense is firing on all cylinders at the moment and routinely clearing 40 points on the back of Dak’s pass-slinging. What’s more, Dallas doesn’t have any incentive to slow him down. The Cowboys remain one loss behind the Philadelphia Eagles for the NFC East Division Title. This is a race that could take the rest of the year to figure out no matter who wins their Week 14 matchup. 

Other challengers may have less at stake to close the NFL season. Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have all but wrapped up the AFC East Division. They may also clinch a first-round playoff bye before long. By the time we get to Week 17 and 18, Tagovailoa’s arm could be on ice for the postseason.

Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers (+700) is in the same boat. The Niners have the NFC West on lock, and they’re basically guaranteed a first-round bye since only one of the Eagles and Cowboys can finish with a top-two seed. C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans (+2200) is an intriguing dark horse. Houston will be sprinting to the finish as they try to steal an NFL playoff spot. But Stroud is six touchdowns off the lead. That’s a lot of ground to make up.

Our actual pick is going to be…Josh Allen. He has struggled with turnovers at times, but he’s only two touchdowns off the lead, and with a record of .500 even, the Bills are going to playing in more meaningful games to close the regular season. 

OSB Prediction: Josh Allen (+380)

Josh Allen To lead the NFL in total passing touchdowns

Which NFL QB will Lead the League in Total Passing Yards

Here are the latest NFL betting odds on which quarterback will lead the league in passing yards:

QB to Have Most Passing TDsBetOnline
Tua Tagovailoa+190
C.J. Stroud+200
Dak Prescott+750
Jared Goff+850
Patrick Mahomes+1200
Brock Purdy+1200
Josh Allen+1300
Sam Howell+1300
Justin Herbert+3000
Jalen Hurts+4000
Geno Smith+8000
Jordan Love+10000
Matthew Stafford+10000
Lamar Jackson+18000
Russell Wilson+18000
Baker Mayfield+18000

C.J. Stroud (+200) has a 74-yard hold on first place in passing yards right now. But he’s not the odds-on favorite to win this category. That honor belongs to Tua Tagovailoa (+200)

It’s tough to argue with the logic. Miami ranks second in net yards gained per passing attempt thanks to Tagovailoa’s arm. Still, Tua and the Dolphins will close the season with a streak of games against the Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills. Given how much Miami’s offense has struggled against opponents above .500 with stingy defenses, defaulting to him is a risky proposition.

Sam Howell of the Washington Commanders (+1300) is second in total passing yards right now and deserves some respect. He will certainly have the volume to catch Stroud. But trusting the Commanders’ offense is a lot like sitting in a rocking chair: It gives you something to do yet doesn’t get you anywhere.

Dak Prescott (+750) is more than 300 yards behind Stroud, so rolling with him feels a little too whimsical. Jared Goff (+850) has the arm to make up similar ground, but the Detroit Lions may have very little to play for once they clinch the NFC North Division. At nearly 400 yards behind first place, both Brock Purdy (+1200) and Patrick Mahomes (+1200) are unlikely to catch up. The same goes for Josh Allen (+1300).

Linemakers seem to have this correct. Tua Tagovailoa is the biggest threat to unseat Stroud. But we’re not about to predict. The chances of the Dolphins being able to take their foot off the gas in the final two weeks is too great. We’re going to stick with the current leader—who also happens to offer a flashier payout.

OSB Prediction: C.J. Stroud (+200)

C.J. Stroud To lead the NFL in total passing yards

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2023 NFL betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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