The Best NFL Prop Bets for the 2024 Conference Championships

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Jan 25, 2024 07:00 PM
The Best NFL Prop Bets for the 2024 Conference Championships

Ready or not, here come the 2024 NFL Conference Championships! And ready or not, here come our favorite online NFL playoff prop bets for this Sunday’s pair of conference title tilts!

This year’s NFL Conference Championship Weekend is delivering a smorgasbord of intriguing matchups. First up: The Baltimore Ravens will host the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, January 28, at 3 p.m. EST for the AFC Championship. Then, at 6:30 p.m. EST, we will have an NFC Championship showdown between the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers. So much is, quite obviously, on the line. The chance to represent your conference in Super Bowl 58 is a big deal. And while the NFL prop betting markets for the conference championships can often take a backseat to the overall outcomes, there are no shortage of options from which to choose.

In fact, there are so many conference championship prop bets up for consideration, we decided to narrow our focus and make this a themed batch of predictions. This year, our best NFL conference championship prop bets will feature every single starting quarterback. In this case, that means betting on Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens), Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) and Jared Goff (Detroit Lions). To get us started, here are the latest NFL quarterback prop betting odds for the conference championships:

Lamar Jackson passing yardsOver 210.5 (-114)Under 210.5 (-114)
Patrick Mahomes passing yardsOver 246.5 (-114)Under 246.5 (-114)
Brock Purdy passing yardsOver 270.5 (-114)Under 270.5 (-114)
Jared Goff passing yardsOver 255.5 (-114)Under 255.5 (-114)

As usual, you will want to double-check these online NFL playoff betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our NFL prop bet odds for Conference Championship Weekend are accurate entering Tuesday, January 23. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments before the AFC Championship Game and NFC Championship Game kick off on Sunday afternoon.

Of course, this is presuming you wait to submit your NFL playoff prop bets at all. We recommend getting in as early as possible. Not only do the payouts tend to be better, but when it comes to prop betting in the NFL, linemakers will often yank options from the market once a certain amount of money has been wagered on them.

So, which NFL quarterback prop bets should you be considering for the conference championships? Let’s explore the top options together.


Will Patrick Mahomes’ Passing be a Good NFL Prop Bet Investment Against the Ravens?

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a down regular season by his standards, but he’s still getting some love from the NFL prop betting line market:

  • Over 246.5 passing yards (-114)
  • Under 246.5 passing yards (-114)

A sub-250-yard line may not seem like much. And it’s not. But that’s because the Ravens deploy a hellacious passing defense. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 247 or more passing yards just four times all year. That’s absurd. (Ironically, two of the quarterbacks to top that mark will be squaring off in the NFC Championship. Both Brock Purdy and Jared Goff each cleared 250 yards against Baltimore’s defense.)

Volume will be critical to getting Mahomes over the hump. He’s averaging slightly over 37 passing attempts per game, which is right in line with last year’s mark of 38. However, the Chiefs aren’t moving the ball as well overall. Mahomes is averaging 4.1 completed air yards per completion. That’s by far and away the lowest mark of his career

What’s more, as we saw in their win over Buffalo, Kansas City will be relying on their defense and clock control to get by first and foremost. We believe that will keep Mahomes’ final passing total south of 246.5.

OSB Prediction: Patrick Mahomes finishes with under 246.5 passing yards (-114)

Patrick Mahomes To finish with under 246.5 passing yards

How Often will the Ravens Lean on Lamar Jackson’s Arm vs. the Chiefs?

Lamar Jackson usually racks up fewer passing yards than your prototypical superstar quarterback. It’s not an indictment of him. Rather, it’s all about how important he is to the rushing game. Baltimore often limits his passing attempts in favor of having him scramble on the ground.

Based off the latest NFL conference championship prop betting odds, linemakers don’t expect the Ravens to deviate from that blueprint vs. the Chiefs:

  • Over 210.5 passing yards (-114)
  • Under 210.5 passing yards (-114)

To his credit, Jackson has cleared 211 passing yards on nine occasions this season. And unlike last week against the Houston Texans, the Ravens are unlikely to blow out the Chiefs. So, we shouldn’t have another instance in which Jackson attempts just 22 passes.

Then again, Kansas City’s defense is no joke. They allow under 177 passing yards per game—one of the NFL’s six best marks. Buffalo mustered just 186 yards against them.

Rolling with sub-210 yards for Lamar still feels dirty. And yet, we do expect Chiefs vs. Ravens to be a defense-first affair.

OSB Prediction: Lamar Jackson finishes with under 210.5 passing yards (-114)

Lamar Jackson To finish with under 210.5 passing yards

Jared Goff’s Passing Total May be the Easiest NFL Prop Bet You’ll Make This Weekend

Jared Goff has seen his volume through the air wax and wane depending on the matchup. But his NFL passing prop betting odds heading into Niners vs. Lions suggest he’ll be firing away quite often:

  • Over 255.5 passing yards (-114)
  • Under 255.5 passing yards (-114)

Moving the ball against the Niners defense is no small task. At the same time, they have been willing to concede medium-sized passing gains to protect downfield and the red zone at large. Goff is perfectly wired to take advantage of that.

Let’s also not discount the fact that most expect Detroit to be playing from behind for much of this game. And if that’s going to be the case, Goff will have let ‘er rip under early and often.

OSB Prediction: Jared Goff finishes with over 255.5 passing yards (-114)

Jared Goff To finish with over 255.5 passing yards

Can Brock Purdy Move the Chains Against the Lions if Deebo Samuel Doesn’t Suit Up?

The Lions do not have the sturdiest secondary. On the contrary, their defense downfield is extremely Swiss cheese-y. Not surprisingly, then, Brock Purdy’s passing yards have the highest NFL prop bet total of the conference championships:

  • Over 270.5 (-114)
  • Under 270.5 (-114)

On the one hand, Purdy has totaled 271-plus yards on eight occasions this year. And the Lions have surrendered more than 300 passing yards eight times this season. Assuming the Niners don’t get out to a huge lead that deflates Purdy’s attempts, this isn’t that tall of an order.

On the other hand, star wide receiver Deebo Samuel may not play against the Lions. And the last time Purdy played without him, San Francisco couldn’t move the ball effectively for anything.

To be honest, we’re shocked Samuel’s status has not impacted Purdy’s NFL prop bet market more than this. We really don’t see him hitting the 270-yard threshold—not even against this Lions defense.

OSB Prediction: Brock Purdy finishes with under 270.5 passing yards (-114)

Brock Purdy To finish with under 270.5 passing yards

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2024 NFL betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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