2023 NFL Betting Predictions for Every Major Stat Category

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Jul 20, 2023 08:00 PM
2023 NFL Betting Predictions for Every Major Stat Category

To say the 2023 NFL season is right around the corner would be an understatement. It's actually closer than that. Opening night is less than two months away at this writing, which means we're overdue to deliver some 2023 NFL betting picks for the leaders in the most important statistical categories.

We consider these wagers to be sleeper doo-dads. They are not the most popular 2023 NFL futures, but the early lines give bettors the chance to earn muuuch better than even money on individual lines.

With that in mind, let's begin with which player will have the most passing touchdowns this season. Here are the latest online NFL betting odds for this category:

Most Passing TDsBetOnlineBovadaBetUS
Patrick Mahomes+300+300+300
Josh Allen+500+500+500
Justin Herbert+550+550+550
Joe Burrow+600+600+600
Kirk Cousins+1100+1100+1100
Aaron Rodgers+1200+1200+1200
Tua Tagovailoa+1400+1400+1400
Lamar Jackson+2000+2000+2000
Geno Smith+2000+2000+2000
Trevor Lawrence+2000+2000+2000
Dak Prescott+2000+2000+2000
Jared Goff+2000+2000+2000
Russell Wilson+2500+2500+2500
Deshuan Watson+3000+3000+3000
Derek Carr+4000+4000+4000
Jalen Hurts+4000+4000+4000
Matthew Stafford+4000+4000+4000
Jimmy Garoppolo+4000+4000+4000
Mac Jones+5000+5000+5000
Kenny Pickett+6000+6000+6000
Jordan Love+6000+6000+6000
C.J. Stroud+6000+6000+6000
Bryce Young+6000+6000+6000
Baker Mayfield+6000+6000+6000
Daniel Jones+8000+8000+8000
Justin Fields+10000+10000+10000
Desmond Ridder+10000+10000+10000

Please remember to continue checking these lines until you actually submit your predictions. Year-end stat leaders won't be cemented before sometime in December at the absolute earliest. That gives the best online sportsbooks in the United States plenty of time to futz and fiddle with the betting odds for who will have the most touchdown passes.

Patrick Mahomes (+300) of the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs has emerged as the odds-on favorite to win this honor for the second year in a row. Should he be your pick? And what other 2023 NFL stat leaders are worth betting on? Read on for our fresh-out-of-the-oven predictions!

Should You Invest in Patrick Mahomes' NFL Betting Odds for the Most Passing Touchdowns?

It's tough to argue against Mahomes' status as the favorite for this category. He continues to headline perhaps the NFL's most potent offense, and no one came close to touching him last season.

Mahomes finished 2022 with a league-leading 41 passing touchdowns. The next closest quarterbacks were Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals, who each threw 30 TDs. Both of them could be in the mix this year, but can they make up such a huge gap when the talent around Mahomes hasn't regressed?

If you're looking for worthwhile alternatives, Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers (+550) and Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins (+1400) are currently catching our eye.

Overall, though, we can't bring ourselves to bet against Mahomes. Especially when he pays out 3-to-1.

OSB Prediction: Patrick Mahomes (+300)

Patrick Mahomes To lead the NFL in passing touchdowns

Who Will Have the Most Passing Yards in 2023?

Here are the top 10 NFL betting odds for who will have the most passing yards in 2023:

  • Patrick Mahomes (+250)
  • Justin Herbert (+700)
  • Joe Burrow (+750)
  • Kirk Cousins (+1100)
  • Josh Allen (+1100)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (+1400)
  • Trevor Lawrence (+1600)
  • Dak Prescott (+2000)
  • Jared Goff (+2500)
  • Aaron Rodgers (+2800)

Mahomes won this category in a landslide last year, beating out second place by nearly 1,000 yards. We could easily see him taking home first place again this season.

And yet, we're drawn to Tua TagovailoaHe averages more yards per passing attempt, and the volume should be there in Miami this season. If he can stay healthy, he ends up being fantastic value at 14-to-1.

OSB Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa (+1400)

Tua Tagovailoa To lead the NFL in passing yards

2023 NFL Betting Odds for the Most Rushing Touchdowns During the Regular Season

Here are the top NFL betting odds for who will lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns during the 2023 regular season:

  • Jalen Hurts (+750)
  • Nick Chubb (+750)
  • Derrick Henry (+900)
  • Jonathan Taylor (+1000)
  • Josh Jacobs (+1200)
  • Austin Ekeler (+1400)
  • Saquon Barkley (+1400)
  • Bijan Robinson (+14000)
  • Tony Pollard (+1800)
  • Joe Mixon (+1800)

Color us surprised that Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles (+750) checks in as a co-favorite alongside Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns (+750). Philadelphia figures to have Hurts working through the air more this season. Meanwhile, Chubb may see his volume drop in Cleveland's offense now that QB1 Deshaun Watson will go through a training camp.

Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans (+900) is never a bad bet in this spot. We could see Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants (+1400) juicing up his TDs, as well.

In the end, we like the idea of going with Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers (+1400). He finished second in this category last year, and his share of the Chargers' offense isn't expected to drop.

OSB Prediction: Austin Ekeler (+1400)

Austin Ekeler To lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns

Who Will Lead the NFL in Receiving Touchdowns This Year?

Buckle up for this category. It's going to be a wild ride. Here are the latest betting odds for who will lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns during the 2023 season:

  • Ja'Marr Chase (+600)
  • Cooper Kupp (+850)
  • Travis Kelce (+850)
  • Davante Adams (+850)
  • A.J. Brown (+1200)
  • Justin Jefferson (+1200)
  • Tyreek Hill (+1200)
  • Stefon Diggs (+1400)
  • CeeDee Lamb (+1600)
  • Garrett Wilson (+1800)

We would be inclined to bet on Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders (+850) to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns for the second consecutive year. However, we don't trust the passing offense to work as well with Jimmy Garoppolo now under center.

Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs (+850) came in second last year during his first season without Tyreek Hill. He remains intriguing. So does Tyreek Hill himself (+1200); he's now the headliner of Miami's pass-heavy offense.

Ultimately, we think Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills (+1400) is being undervalued by most of the best online NFL betting sites. The Bills throw the ball in bunches, and he is, by far, Josh Allen's favorite target.

If you can't bring yourself to go with Diggs, consider taking a long-shot look at Jaylen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins (+2500). He ranks outside the top 10 names shown above, mostly because he and Tyreek Hill may cannibalize looks in Miami's offense. But the Dolphins throw the ball often and extremely deep. We wouldn't be surprised if Waddle winds up usurping Hill in the pecking order.

OSB Prediction: Stefon Diggs (+1400)

Stefon Diggs To lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2023 NFL betting needs:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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