2021 PGA Championship Preview and Betting Picks

Quinn Allen
By , Updated on: Sep 4, 2022 08:00 PM
2021 PGA Championship Preview and Betting Picks

Fans of professional golf are, as usual, extremely stoked for the start of the PGA Championship. Not only does it offer one of the tour's most lucrative prize purses, but historically, it's been the host to plenty of twists and turns. We will try to take that level of unpredictability into account as we drop our 2021 PGA Championship preview and betting picks.

First thing's first, of course: Let's take a look at the latest PGA Championship betting odds. For your convenience, we've compared the golf odds at Bovada, BetOnline, and BetNow on all participants who are laying a +5000 or better:

Rory McIlroy+1200+1200+1200
Justin Thomas+1200+1400+1200
Dustin Johnson+1200+1600+1600
Jordan Spieth+1400+1300+1300
Bryson DeChambeau+1400+1400+1400
Jon Rahm+1400+1400+1400
Xander Schauffele+1600+2400+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800+3300+3300
Collin Morikawa+2200+3300+3300
Viktor Hovland+2500+2500+2500
Hideki Matsuyama+2500+3500+3500
Patrick Cantlay+2500+4000+4000
Matt Kuchar+3000+3300+3000
Patrick Reed+3300+3500+3500
Tony Finau+3300+3500+4000
Cameron Smith+3300+4000+4000
Webb Simpson+3300+4000+5000
Scottie Scheffler+3500+3500+3500
Sam Burns+4000+4000+5000
Abraham Ancer+5000+5000+5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick+5000+5000+5000
Sergio Garcia+5000+5000+5000

Definitely confirm these PGA Championship betting lines before deciding on a wager. They shouldn't move much, since we're so close to opening day, but they might sway a little bit. They will also surely start to shift after Day 1 and Day 2, when the first cuts are made.

pga tour golf field

2021 PGA Championship Betting Breakdown

  • When: Thursday, May 20 - Sunday, May 23
  • Where: Ocean Course at Kiawah Island
  • Prize Purse: $11 million

Our goal is to cover every possible aspect of PGA Championship picks. From the odds on last year's champion to the best value bets to our actual PGA Championship prediction, get ready for a top-to-bottom overview of what's to come.

Can Collin Morikawa Defend His Crown?

Oddsmakers usually give special consideration to the defending winners. That isn't happening here. 

Collin Morikawa won last year's tournament by finishing at a -13, two strokes in front of anyone else on the leaderboard. That would usually warrant semi-favorite odds the next time around. He is instead laying a +2200 at Bovada and +3300 at both BetOnline and BetNow.

This seems like he's being underestimated to us. He's still not a household name, so that's inherently going to cap his odds. He's also not the strongest driver. But he is among the most accurate hitters off the tee and off second shots on the tour. Playing his odds would not be a bad investment, particularly if you're getting him at 33-to-1.

Is Matt Kuchar Being Overvalue? 

Many people don't concern themselves with golfers laying around 30-to-1 odds when it comes to gauging betting value. The payout is so lucrative and the odds so long, what's the difference?

In the case of Matt Kuchar, there's a big difference.

His odds are usually reserved for middle-of-the-road contenders. He's something significantly less. He ranks 184th in driving distance off the tee, and his average score on the tore this season fails to crack to the top 115. He also doesn't have the necessary victories on his resume that suggest he's due for a turnaround.

Certain predictive models are in lockstep with us. The program that CBS Sports uses actually pegs him as a 100-to-1 long shot. We'd recommend steering clear of his odds unless they're in for a drastic change.

Should Rory McIlroy Be The Favorite?

Three golfers currently qualify as co-favorites entering the PGA Championship, all of whom are laying a +1200: Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas.

Everybody expects Johnson and Thomas to be here. They rank first and second, respectively, in the standings. But McIlroy is a bit of a surprise. He firmly ranks in the top 10 on the tour, and he did win the Wells Fargo Championship this year, but his accuracy off the tee and on the ground has been all over the place.

McIlroy's driving accuracy off the tee currently places 172nd on tour. He has also struggled on his approach to the green from 75 to 100 yards out; he doesn't even crack the 200 in accuracy.

This isn't the course to bank on his having one of his best performances this season. He becomes a more attractive option if he turns into a +1500 or +2000 option.

Is Hideki Matsuyama A Good Bet?

The public rushed to Hideki Matsuyama when he opened around +4400. He has since hit +2500 at Bovada and +3500 at both BetNow and BetOnline. There's a chance his odds only continue to move in this direction.

For starters, Matsuyama flat-out won The Masters and did so in dominant fashion. He held a six-shot lead going into the back nine before a little 11th-hour drama. 

Some will be concerned that he's never won the PGA Championship before. But he has finished as high as fourth. Also, and more importantly, he has never, in his career, missed the PGA Championship cut.

Hideki Matsuyama betting picks

2021 PGA Championship Prediction

There are so many intriguing options to choose from this year. Brooks Koepka (+1800) won in both 2018 and 2019. McIlroy (+1200) might not be perfect, but he's a two-time winner as well. Justin Thomas (+1200) is no stranger to success at the PGA Championship, either.

Still, we're drawn to who we just discussed: Matsuyama. He's playing some of the best golf of his career. His average drive is traveling nearly 300 yards, he's hitting the fairway on more than 78 percent of his first shots, and he's reaching the green on regulation strokes an absurd amount of the time.

Now is the time to jump on his odds. They have only become less lucrative since the open. There's a good chance they continue to decline, and you don't want to miss out on a potential 25-to-1 or 35-to-1 payout if you can get it.

OSB Prediction: Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)

Hideki Matsuyama To win the PGA Championship

Check out this list of the best online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your golf betting:

Meet the author

Quinn Allen

Quinn Allen leverages his broadcast journalism degree and passion for sports in his betting previews and analysis. Based in Kelowna, Canada, he has emerged as an expert voice with picks featured on OSB, MTS, SBD, and as a ClutchPoints editor. With a lifelong fandom of...

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