Will the Buffalo Bills Prove They're Back in Week 17 vs New England Patriots?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Will the Buffalo Bills Prove They're Back in Week 17 vs New England Patriots?

Don’t look now, but the Buffalo Bills appear to be on the climb. They are winning games, and their odds to win Super Bowl 58 have started rebounding from their previous descent. Can they keep their momentum going in their Week 17 matchup against the New England Patriots? That’s what we’re here to figure out.

Here are all the pertinent details you need for this end-of-season showdown:

  • What: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
  • Date: Sunday, December 31, 2023
  • Time: 1 p.m. eastern standard time
  • Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York 
  • Point Spread: Bills (-6.5), Patriots (+6.5)

One look at the Patriots record, and you’ll be convinced they don’t stand a chance. But New England beat Buffalo during their first meeting this season. And while they aren’t favored to take this one, the latest NFL online betting odds don’t peg them as hopeless underdogs:

Buffalo Bills-270+220New England Patriots

Please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Bills vs. Patriots Week 17 betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, December 13. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on December 31.

Rule of thumb when betting this far in advance: Expect movement across all Bills vs. Patriots betting lines. The best football betting sites already have the moneyline, point spread and over/under available. That’s great for us. But they will react to changes in team records and gambling markets over the next couple of weeks. Keep this in mind if you’re not placing your wagers prior to Week 15 games.

Back to the question at hand. It’s the same question everyone around the NFL has found themselves asking over the past couple of weeks. And that question is…

Are the Buffalo Bills Officially Back?

The answer to this question is complicated. But we lean toward “yes.” Just consider what Buffalo has done over their past three games: They destroyed the New York Jets in Week 11. Then they almost beat the Philadelphia Eagles during a Week 12 overtime bout. And then, in Week 14, they upset the Kansas City Chiefs

This is all to say, these are not the same Bills that we’re coughing up turnovers left and right while scoring and defending at an inconsistent clip. Josh Allen looks reborne lately. The Bills have committed just three turnovers over their past three games. They’re also averaging 28.7 points during this stretch. And those numbers while playing two elite defenses fielded by the Jets and Chiefs. 

Buffalo’s own defense, meanwhile, has started to lock things down. Holding the Chiefs to under 20 points is a big deal. They did let up 37 points to the Eagles, but even then, they were able to force turnovers. The Bills defense, in fact, has forced eight turnovers over this 2-1 streak.

If you’re still skeptical of Buffalo’s odds to win Super Bowl 58, we understand why. They have been too much of a roller coaster. Last season’s playoff letdown is also still fresh in everyone’s minds.

But right here, right now, this about beating the Patriots in Week 17. And taking down perhaps the NFL’s worst offense is hardly a tall order for this version of the Bills. 

OSB Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-270)

Buffalo Bills To beat the New England Patriots

Do Oddsmakers Expect the New England Patriots to Remain within Striking Distance?

Many of Buffalo’s victories in the latter half of the season have been close calls. But the latest NFL point spread betting odds for Week 17 are giving them a much larger cushion to cover than normal:

  • Buffalo Bills, -6.5 (-110)
  • New England Patriots, +6.5 (-110)

Taking the Bills by a touchdown or more is not a no-brainer. Buffalo has won just a single game by more than six points since Week 5. 

However, their 32-6 romping of the Jets just a few weeks ago suggests they’re ready to dismantle clearly inferior opponents. And that’s just what they’re facing in the Patriots. The fact that the Bills are playing at home boosts our confidence in their covering, too. You should also never underestimate how much having something to play for winds up mattering in the grand scheme. The Bills will enter Weeks 15 and, likely, 16 sitting outside the AFC playoff picture. They need this game. And they know it.

OSB Prediction: Buffalo Bills, -6.5 (-110)

Buffalo Bills To cover the point spread against the New England Patriots

Linemakers Appear to Have Faith in Both the Patriots and Bills Offenses

Everyone knows the Bills field a high-octane offense, even though they have labored through their fair share of struggles this year The Patriots, on the other hand, have the worst offense in the NFL by points per game. This has prompted many NFL over/under betting lines that check in below 40 points. But the Week 17 over/under betting odds are showing no such restraint:

  • Over 45.5 (-110)
  • Under 45.5 (-110)

Counting on the Bills to hold up their end of this bargain is a given. The offense is currently on a roll, and the Patriots rank 27th in net yards allowed per passing attempt as well as 24th in passing touchdowns surrendered.

Banking on New England to generate enough points, on the other hand, is a tougher sell. The Patriots rank dead last in points scored per game. Their suboptimal passing game should be catnip for a suddenly active Bills defense. Dropping 21 points on the Pittsburgh Steelers defense just a couple of weeks ago could signal a come-up. Then again, New England has scored more than 20 points just twice all season. Even if Buffalo puts up 30 points, this still profiles as an “under” situation.

OSB Prediction: Under 45.5 (-110)

Patriots and Bills To score under 45.5 combined points

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2023 NFL betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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