Burrow's Bengals to fall just short in Week 14 loss to the Bills

Steve Starr
By , Updated on: Dec 4, 2025 12:00 AM
Bengals vs Bills Picks
  • What: Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
  • Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY
  • When: 1 PM EST, Sunday, December 7th, 2025

Joe Burrow returned on Thanksgiving night to lead his Bengals to a 32-14 victory over the Ravens. Still somehow in the hunt for the AFC North crown despite a 4-8 record, Cincinnati will travel to Orchard Park to face Josh Allen and the Bills.

Let's look at the latest betting lines for Sunday's game. Odds are subject to change.

BovadaSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Cincinnati Bengals+5.5 (-110)+220Ov 52.5 (-120)
Buffalo Bills-5.5 (-110)-270Un 52.5 (+100)

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Bills favored in Orchard Park

Buffalo is a 5.5-point home favorite at Highmark Stadium on Sunday. Sean McDermott's club ran the ball down Pittsburgh's throat in a dominant 26-7 win in Week 13. James Cook rushed for 144 yards on a career-high 32 carries, and Josh Allen broke a tie with Cam Newton for the most career rushing TDs (76) by a quarterback in NFL history.

With injuries along their offensive line, the Bills went to a run-heavy game plan versus the Steelers. But that likely won't be necessary against a Bengals defense missing star edge rusher Trey Hendrickson.

Burrow shakes off the rust

The OVER/UNDER for Sunday's contest is a sky-high 52.5 points. Joe Burrow passed for 261 yards and 2 TDs on 46 attempts in a 32-14 victory over Baltimore on Thanksgiving night. With Tee Higgins set to miss his second straight game with a concussion, Ja'Marr Chase will lead the charge against Buffalo's top ranked passing defense (163.2 yards per game).

Even with the NFL's worst set of receivers to throw to, Josh Allen should feast on a Bengals D that's allowing a league-worst 256.8 yards per contest. Meanwhile, Cincinnati should attack the Bills on the ground with Chase Brown and Samaje Perine. Sean McDermott's defense is permitting 141.3 rushing yards per game, third-worst in the NFL.

History on Cincinnati's side

Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. Bills. That includes a 27-10 beatdown in the 2023 AFC Divisional Playoff Game. At 4-8, Zach Taylor's squad is two games behind both the Ravens and Steelers in the AFC North with no room for error. However, the Bengals ripped off five wins in a row to close last season, so a postseason berth isn't entirely out of the question.

At 8-4, Buffalo can't afford a loss either. The Bills are three games behind New England in the AFC East and narrowly holding on to the seventh seed in the conference.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills Picks

Joe Burrow's greatness is unquestioned but his defense is poised to let him down once again in a big spot. While we like Cincinnati to cover the points (+5.5) on the road with the OVER 52.5, Buffalo will come out on top, improving their record to 15-1 straight up in their last 16 home games.

Cincinnati Bengals to cover vs Bills
Bovada
+5.5

Meet the author

Steve Starr

Accomplished Sports Betting Specialist with over two decades of experience in sports analytics, strategic betting formulation, and risk management, with a particular focus on professional sports such as the NFL, NBA, and NHL. Proven success in applying statistical mo...

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