NFL Monday Night Football Picks 2021: Can Patriots Steal AFC East from Bills?

Eric Uribe
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
NFL Monday Night Football Picks 2021: Can Patriots Steal AFC East from Bills?

This year, no regular season betting odds on the NFL have been higher stakes than those of the Week 13 Monday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. Based on the standings and odds for the AFC, this game could very well determine the 2021 AFC East Division title.

Make your latest 2021 NFL Monday Night Football picks with this specific battle in mind: Will the Patriots wrest the AFC East from the Bills, or will Buffalo continue holding serve over its New England counterparts?

Before we dive into the implications of the Bills-Patriots rivalry, here's a look at the latest Monday Night Football betting odds for December 6 from BetOnline:

Buffalo Bills-150+130New England Patriots

As an aside, Monday Night Football betting always presents a great opportunity to register with a preferred sportsbook. Odds providers will run special betting promotions and bonuses for new users following a busy weekend of NFL action. You'd be smart to shop around for any sportsbooks that look like a great fit. 

No matter where you place your bets, though, be sure to double-check these NFL odds before settling on your NFL picks. All Monday Night Football odds are subject to shift right up until opening kickoff.

AFC East Title on the Line in Patriots-Bills

Indeed, five weeks remain in the 2021 NFL regular season after Week 13. There is, in theory, plenty of time for the AFC East title to be decided.

And yet, that's not totally true.

Only the Bills and Patriots are currently in the running to finish atop the AFC East. Both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are too far below .500 to do anything special. The winner of this game will be the default AFC East division leader while also holding the season series advantage over their counterpart, 1-0.

Technically speaking, the AFC East standings can still shift after Week 13. The Bills and Patriots will meet again in Week 16. More likely than not, though, this Week 13 battle between New England and Buffalo will, when all's said and done, wind up being for all the AFC East marbles.

Can New England Win Seventh Game in a Row?

In a vacuum, it makes sense that the Bills are favored over the Patriots. When two teams are so close in record and performance, the edge typically goes to the home team. 

However, New England remains undefeated on the road this year, a perfect 5-0. Granted, they've mostly fattened up on crappy teams with no chance of making the playoffs, but for the most part their top-ranked defense has held serve in hostile territory.

The Bills aren't going to catch the Patriots off-guard in cold weather, either. They're used to playing in freezing conditions. 

Whether the Patriots can score enough to keep space with the NFL's second-best offense is the more pressing question. A few weeks ago, the answer would've been no. But New England is averaging over 35 points over the past three weeks and is now up to eight in net yards per passing attempt thanks to the recent play of rookie Mac Jones.

Investing in the Patriots is a risk. The Bills are for real, and they have the more seasoned quarterback in Josh Allen. But the Patriots have arguably been the best team in the NFL for half the year. Their underdog odds are worth rolling the dice on.

OSB Prediction: New England Patriots (+130)

New England Patriots To beat the Buffalo Bills

Patriots to Cover vs. Bills

Take a look at the latest point spread odds for New England vs. Buffalo:

  • New England Patriots (+3): -115
  • Buffalo Bills (-3): -105

This is a no-brainer pick for us. The Patriots have to cover if they're going to win.

Even if you think New England loses, they remain an interesting bet to cover. Putting their defense up against Buffalo's offense in potentially freezing-cold weather is a recipe for a tightly contested affair that may come down to the final seconds.

OSB Prediction: New England Patriots (+3)

New England Patriots To cover against Buffalo Bills

Will Patriots-Bills Hit the Over or Under?

Here are the latest Patriots-Bills over/under odds:

  • Over 44.5: -105
  • Under 44.5: -105

Linemakers appear to be reading too much into New England's offensive struggles from earlier this season. The Patriots are clearing 35 points per game over their past three victories and averaging only a hair less for the life of their winning streak. 

Combined with the Bills' 29.6 points per game, this should be an easy over. Perhaps the cold weather has an adverse impact on the scoring or entices both teams to rely more heavily on their ground game. That possibility, while totally valid, still isn't quite pressing enough for us to work the under. 

OSB Prediction: Over 44.5 (-105)

Bills and Patriots To score over 44.5 points

Check out this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your NFL betting:

Meet the author

Eric Uribe

Eric has been passionate about sports since he was 10 years old. He brings over 10 years of sports journalism experience to his expert coverage of sports betting. Hailing from the US, Eric leverages his diverse expertise covering sports at all levels – from high schoo...

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