Broncos vs Patriots Picks | 01-25-26

What: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
When: 3:00 PM EST, Sunday, January 25, 2025

Denver secured its 13th comeback victory of the season in a 33-30 overtime win over the Bills in the divisional round. However, Bo Nix broke his ankle in OT, meaning Jarret Stidham will be under center when the Broncos host the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday.

Who will advance to Super Bowl 60? Let's look at the latest betting lines for Broncos vs Patriots. Odds are subject to change.

	Spread	Money Line	Total Points
New England Patriots	-4.5 (-115)	-245	Ov 42.0 (-110)
Denver Broncos	+4.5 (-105)	+205	Un 42.0 (-110)

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Patriots open as big road favorites

New England is a 4.5-point road favorite at Mile High Stadium on Sunday. Drake Maye turned the ball over three times in a 28-16 win over Houston, but the Patriots defense recorded five takeaways of their own. The sophomore quarterback also connected with Kayshon Boutte on a spectacular one-handed 32-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter to seal the game.

The over/under for the AFC championship game is only 42 points. The Patriots and Broncos ranked third and fourth in scoring defense, respectively, allowing only 17.8 PPG and 18.9 PPG in the regular season.

Jarrett Stidham, QB1 for the AFC Championship Game. 🐴 pic.twitter.com/xZ26WuyRsD

— theScore (@theScore) January 18, 2026

Can Stidham get it done?

Jarret Stidham has a 1-3 career record as a starter and hasn't completed a pass in over two years. The 29-year-old was drafted by the Patriots in the 3rd round in 2019 and was the Raiders backup QB under Josh McDaniels in 2022. While New England knows his strengths and weaknesses, Stidham will be playing behind a great offensive line and Sean Payton is one of the top playcallers in the game.

Drake Maye is a strong NFL MVP contender after leading the NFL in QBR and completion percentage over expectation. However, the sophomore QB has been downright sloppy in the playoffs, losing the ball four times versus the Texans, resulting in two turnovers. Maye has a league-high 14 fumbles in 19 games this year, including the postseason.

Advantage in the trenches?

Denver owns a 4-1 advantage over New England in the playoffs, including AFC Championship Game win following the 2013 and 2015 seasons. The Broncos were fourth in pressure rate without a blitz in 2025 while New England's D leads the NFL with 72 pressures this postseason.

However, while Milton Williams and company will be squaring off against one of the NFL's best offensive lines, Nik Bonitto could feast on rookie left tackle Will Campbell, who's allowing a sky-high 10% pressure rate since returning from injury.

.@GregABedard on Drake Maye's turnovers:

"You can't fumble 6 times in 2 games. I don't, I don't wanna hear any excuses from anybody."

NEW EPISODE of The Greg Bedard Patriots Podcast w/ @NickCRadio on @PatriotsCLNS: https://t.co/FO7B2fgLQn pic.twitter.com/K8NPb2F5lj

— Patriots on CLNS (@PatriotsCLNS) January 20, 2026

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Picks

The Patriots have a definitive advantage at quarterback, but Drake Maye has yet to play up to his potential during this playoff run. New England's defense is also coming off games against two of the worst offensive lines in football in the Texans and Chargers. Denver's unit will pose a much stiffer challenge.

While New England may sneak out a win, we love the Broncos +4.5 with the OVER 42.

Denver Broncos to cover vs Patriots

+4.5

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