In this edition of 2022 NFL Week 12 picks, we want to zero in on a question that we're not sure is getting enough attention: Are the Miami Dolphins Super Bowl contenders?
A quick look at their odds to win the Super Bowl suggest the answer is no. Linemakers have given them only a puncher's chance to emerge as champions. And we understand the inclination. The Buffalo Bills exist. So do the Kansas City Chiefs. And some other teams. But the Tua Tagovailoa-piloted Dolphins are not to be slept on. They have shown time and time again they're as lethal as almost anyone when they're at full strength.
And guess what? Heading into their Sunday, November 27, matchup with the Houston Texans at 1 p.m. EST, the Dolphins are still at full strength—and working off four consecutive wins to boot. Can they make it five this week? And where do they stand relative to other NFL superpowers? We've got answers. But first, here are the latest NFL online betting odds, courtesy of BetOnline:
|Miami Dolphins||-620||+460||Houston Texans|
Please make sure to always double-check these online NFL betting odds prior to submitting your wager. Our Dolphins vs. Texans betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, November 23. That gives linemakers plenty of time to make small tweaks leading into the opening kick-off.
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So, where should you land on the Miami Dolphins? Let's get to some Week 12 NFL picks!
Oddsmakers Don't Think The Houston Texans Stand a Chance Against the Miami Dolphins—And They're Right
The Texans are actively tanking at this point of the season, so it's no wonder why oddsmakers aren't even sort of invested in them. Yet, even if they weren't thoroughly rebuilding, they just don't have the top-end defensive talent necessary to hang with Miami.
Pretty much everyone and their mother has noted how the Dolphins are undefeated this season with Tua Tagovaioloa taking reps under center. And, well, that's impressive. But it also doesn't do justice to how well the Dolphins are playing overall. Miami is averaging 29.1 points per game in victories this year, and they're at a cool 35 points per game over their past three contests. This offense is, quite literally, scorching hot.
Don't expect the Texans to slow them down, either. Indeed, they have been pleasantly middling for stretches at a time, but ball containment is not their specialty. Houston's rushing defense ranks 29th in net yards allowed per attempt, and the Texans are also 26th in net yards allowed per passing attempt. That's a combustible combination regardless of who they're facing. But it's especially problematic versus a Dolphins unit with two of the league's most dangerous downfield threats in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
In all honesty, this feels like a game in which the Dolphins should be a -1000 or better. Oddsmakers are, quite frankly, giving you a give at -620. Especially when you consider Miami is coming off a Buy Week and also playing at home.
OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins (-620)
Can Miami Cover a Lofty Point Spread Against Houston in Week 12?
Here are the latest NFL point spread betting odds for Dolphins vs. Texans in Week 12:
- Miami Dolphins, -13 (-110)
- Houston Texans, +13 (-110)
A big part of us wants to say the Dolphins will have no issue beating up the Texans by two touchdowns or more. At the same time, Houston has lost just one game by two touchdowns all season.
This isn't meant to imply they might win. They won't. At least, we'd be flabbergasted if they did. But the Texans aren't incredibly adept at moving the ball, and their offense doesn't operate at a particularly fast pace. Opponents also tend to slow down their own offense and try controlling the clock when they get ahead by enough points, as well.
It's our belief that'll happen again in Week 12. The Dolphins could probably run up the score if they want to, but the combination of an early lead and focus on clock management will put a cap on their point differential.
OSB Prediction: Houston Texans, +13 (-110)
Miami vs. Houston Feels Primed to Hit the Over in Week 12
Below you can find the latest NFL over/under betting odds for Texans vs. Dolphins in Week 12:
- Over 46.5 (-110)
- Under 46.5 (-110)
Favoring the "over" here will come across as counterintuitive after we just said the Dolphins may not look to run up the score. It's not meant to be. Miami is merely a team capable of topping 30 points entirely within the flow of the game. A final score of 31-20 that features minimal second half scoring is hardly out of the question.
For as bad as the Texans are, we also have to account for the Dolphins' spotty defense. They have come up big in certain games, but they're 22nd in points allowed per game and hovering close to the bottom 10 in both net yards allowed per passing attempt and net yards allowed per rushing attempt.
If we pencil in the Dolphins for their usual 27 to 32 points, then the "over" almost feels like a given. Houston could always surprise us and lay a truly foul-smelling egg, but we're fairly optimistic Miami will give them wiggle room to work—especially with regard to their passing attack.
OSB Prediction: Over 46.5 (-110)
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