NFL Football point spread betting
By Dean Etheridge,
Spread betting in football revolves around the point spread, which is a margin set by oddsmakers to reflect the perceived difference between two teams. The goal is not to predict who will win outright, but whether a team will win or lose by more or less than the posted number. Oddsmakers build NFL betting spreads using power ratings, statistical models, matchup analysis, home-field advantage, injuries, weather, and market perception. The stronger team is listed as the favorite with a negative number, while the weaker team is the underdog with a positive number. The spread is designed to balance action on both sides rather than simply predict the final score.
NFL point spread betting examples
Example 1
Favorite: -4.5
Underdog: +4.5
If the favorite wins 30–26, they win by 4 points and fail to cover, so the underdog +4.5 wins. If the favorite wins 27–20, they cover by winning by 7 points.
Example 2
Favorite: -12.5
Underdog: +12.5
If the favorite wins 38–12, they cover because the margin is 26 points. If they win 24–17, they win the game but do not cover the spread.
Example 3
Favorite: -3.5
Underdog: +3.5
If the favorite wins 24–21, they cover by winning by 3? No. Because the spread is -3.5, they must win by 4 or more. A 27–21 result would cover. If the underdog loses 20–18 or wins outright, the +3.5 bet wins.
Point spreads move throughout the week as money enters the market and new information becomes available. Understanding how spreads are set, how line movement works, and what it means to “cover” is essential to long-term success in NFL point spread betting.
How is a point spread calculated?
Point spreads are built using internal team power ratings that sportsbooks create before the NFL season and adjust weekly. Those ratings are combined with situational factors such as home-field advantage, injuries, rest, travel, matchup data, and weather to generate an opening number. Once released, the spread can move based on betting volume, sharp action, and market influence from major line-setting sportsbooks.
For example, if a team is listed at -4 and its opponent at +4, the favorite must win by more than four points to cover. A 28–21 result (7-point margin) covers -4. A 28–26 result (2-point margin) does not. If the final margin lands exactly on the spread, such as a 27–23 finish on a -4 line, the bet results in a push and stakes are refunded.
Point spreads are also available for specific segments of a game, including first half and first quarter lines. These operate under the same rules but are graded based only on the score at the end of that period, regardless of the final outcome.
NFL Week 1 odds
NFL Week 1 odds are typically released well before the opening kickoff, giving bettors an early look at NFL point spreads across both conference schedules. These initial numbers are shaped by offseason power ratings, roster evaluations, coaching changes, and projected paths toward the playoffs and ultimately the Super Bowl. Once posted, however, NFL betting spreads are highly fluid. Injury reports, lineup adjustments, sharp action, and overall market sentiment can quickly shift a team from favorite to underdog or move a line several points in either direction. Because early-season results influence conference standings and long-term Super Bowl expectations, sportsbooks adjust aggressively to new information. Monitoring line movement from opening number to closing spread remains one of the most important factors in long-term betting success.
NFL against the spread betting
Betting against the spread (ATS) means focusing on whether a team will cover the posted NFL point spread rather than simply win the game. Upsets and close finishes are common in professional football, which is why NFL betting spreads exist in the first place. Even elite teams frequently win without covering, while underdogs often outperform expectations. Success in ATS betting depends on evaluating matchups, not reputations.
Before placing a wager, bettors should assess factors such as quarterback play, defensive efficiency, injuries, coaching tendencies, pace of play, and situational spots like short rest or travel. A high-powered offense may win outright but still fail to cover if its defense allows late scoring. Covering the NFL betting spread requires margin awareness, not just confidence in the better team.
It is also important to review how teams perform against the spread over time. Some teams consistently exceed market expectations, while others struggle to justify favorite status. ATS records, line movement, and matchup dynamics provide better indicators than win-loss records alone. Consistent research and disciplined analysis are essential for long-term profitability in NFL against the spread betting.
NFL Point Spread Betting FAQs
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