Dan Favale | Sat 03/02/2018 - 08:24 EST

Best Super Bowl LII Prop Bets

All Super Bowl 52 prop bet odds come courtesy of TopBet. Note that we've focused on options that will be available at pretty much every online sportsbook. Even cross-sport parlay props were considered with this in mind. Nevertheless, like always, make sure you're ensuring both the existence of these options—along with the final lines on them, as they are subject to change.

First Patriot To Score TD: Brandin Cooks Baby!

cooks

Some of you will invariably be wondering why this prop is here. "Why Brandin Cooks?!?!?" you'll exclaim. "Why him? Why not Rob Gronkowski?"

Perhaps you're also curious why we're picking this exact bet at all. Why not someone from the Philadelphia Eagles? Why not a head-to-head scoring prop? What makes the potential for Cooks to score the New England Patriots' first touchdown so darn intriguing?

The answer to all these (valid) questions is fairly simple: Cooks' +650 blends the right amount of long-shot status with high-end likelihood.

Gronk, after presumably clearing the NFL's concussion protocol, is the odds-on favorite to grab the Patriots' first touchdown; he's laying +350. This makes sense. He's Tom Brady's favorite target overall, particularly in the red zone.

But that's part of Cooks' appeal. He's become Brady's second-favorite target—and absolute favorite in Gronk's brief absence. We have no idea whether New England's star tight end will be fully right by Sunday. The team could, as a long-term precaution, limit his snap count. Bake in the Eagles inevitably dedicating more double coverages to his massive frame, and this all amounts to Cooks' gain.

The rest of his appeal lies with his recent absence of a touchdown catch. 

Cooks hasn't yet caught a touchdown pass through New England's first two playoff tilts. In fact, he has just two touchdown catches over his past seven games. This relative dearth of action in the red zone no doubt has to do with his 5'10" lanky skeleton. Brady and the Patriots would rather target burlier options like Gronk and Danny Amendola (+800).

This, again, only drives up Cooks' intrigue. He seems overdue for a touchdown catch. He's only gone more than two games without a grab once since joining the Patriots. And with extra attention being paid to Gronk, he should get more looks inside the 20 than usual. Even if he doesn't, he retains big-play potential. 

His +650 takes care of the rest.

New England Patriots First Touchdown Cooks (+650) First Player to Score Touchdown Overall Cooks (+1100)

Will Patriots and Eagles Score In EVERY Quarter? Sold!

pats offense

You should love this prop. We sure do. 

The Patriots are laying a tidy +180 if you bet on them scoring in every quarter. The Eagles, meanwhile, sit at +300. If you're going against that outcome, the Patriots are returning -240 while the Eagles fall to -400. 

Invest in the Eagles at your own risk. Their offense isn't potent enough without Carson Wentz manning quarterback to bank on them scoring in all four periods.

Nick Foles, their starting quarterback now, is working off a three touchdown performance from the NFC Title dance, but the Eagles are averaging just 21.2 points per game through both the regular season and playoffs since he took the reins under center. Knowing the Patriots' defense has fast-become a tad underestimated, the Eagles are bound to struggle to move the chains in at least one quarter.

Rolling with the affirmative for the Patriots is far more interesting. They averaged 28.6 points per game during the regular season—second-best mark in the league. More importantly, they rank favorably when breaking down offensive distribution by quarter.

Check out their points-per-frame ranks for the regular season:

  • First Quarter: 5
  • Second Quarter: 1
  • Third Quarter: 8
  • Fourth Quarter: 16

Fourth quarter scoring, as you can see, is the lone concern. But that's only because the Patriots are so prone to blowing opponents out of the water. They're a little less likely to demoralize the Eagles' defense than many of their regular-season foes.

Even if they do, Brady and head coach Bill Belichick aren't taking their foot off the gas until midway through the fourth at the earliest—not in the Super Bowl, and most certainly not after they experienced firsthand what happened to the Atlanta Falcons' 25-point lead in last year's Super Bowl.

Will the Eagles Score in Every Quarter? No (-400) Will the Patriots Score in Every Quarter? Yes (+180)

Total Combined Touchdowns: Give Love To The Over

total tds

The over/under on the total number of combined touchdowns from the Eagles and Patriots currently sits at 6.5. Betting the under will give you a -300 return; the over is worth a fairly lucrative +220.

You can see where we're going with this.

No argument needs to be made from the Patriots' side. They average over three touchdowns per game, and they've topped the four-touchdown threshold eight times this season, including the playoffs.

Buying into the Eagles' side of things is a little bit more tricky. They're scoring about as much as the Houston Texans with Foles under center—which, for the record, isn't good. 

But Foles is working off a three-touchdown detonation in the NFC title tilt. That counts for something. And even if he's not on fire, the Patriots' defense will be forgiving if they're up big. Between their rushing attack and Foles' boom-or-bust potential, the Eagles could, and should, be good for three touchdowns on their own. And if they're going to get three, well, you better believe this line hits the over.

Make no bones about it: This is a risk. We're going with the long-shot outcome—one that feels a little more likely than most other dice rolls.

Over/Under 6.5 Total Number of TDs Over (+220)

Cross-Sport Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo or Patriots Offense?

giannis

Although I try extremely hard not to play favorites, this is by far the coolest prop option.

TopBet is giving the Patriots offense a 0.5-point edge over Giannis Antetokounmpo's own scoring exploits in the Milwaukee Bucks' matchup with the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday afternoon. And you should be taking the Patriots' offense at -115.

Look, Antetokounmpo is spectacular. He's averaging over 28 points per game on the season. But that's still less than the Patriots' offense is totaling overall. His average also dropped to 27.5 points per game for the month of January, and he's at just 26.5 points per game when working on one day rest, as he'll be this Sunday.

Furthermore, the Nets have been sneaky good at the defensive end this season. They're inside the top 10 of points allowed per 100 possessions since Christmas. Add in that this game is a matinee, beginning at 12 p.m. eastern standard time, and every single player involved, including Antetokounmpo, could find themselves out of sorts due to the early start.

NE Offense (-0.5) vs. Giannis Scoring Total (+0.5) NE (-115)

Length of Super Bowl: Longer or Shorter Than 3.8 Hours?

game length

Off-the-beaten-bath bet here, which you should love.

The over/under on the length of this year's Super Bowl, from start to completion, is 227.5 minutes—or about 3.8 hours. Somewhat shockingly, the under is worth -140, compared to the over at +110.

You know where this is going.

When it comes to things like total scores, total passes and length of time for big-time games, yours truly is usually in favor of the over. Times have changed for the NFL not only on the field, but off it. The league will be aggressive in the advertising it pursues, and the halftime show is bound to go longer than 30 minutes this year.

That last part is a biggie. Rumors have circulated that N'Sync could be reuniting when Justin Timberlake takes the stage. Some sportsbooks even let you bet on whether Britney Spears will be making a cameo. If either one of these things happens, it will make for a more expansive halftime experience.

Take all that, sprinkle in the possibility of an uptick in booth reviews, since the NFL is obsessed with getting things right, and 3.8 hours feels on the short end. And let us not discount the potential for a close affair that forces the Eagles or Patriots to play the timeout game.

Count on this thing going at least four hours.

Over/Under 227.5 for Length of Super Bowl Over (+110)

All stats come courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and are accurate leading into Super Bowl 52.

Category : Sports Betting News