Entering Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season, there is still much to figure out. Less than 20 percent of the schedule has played out, after all. At the same time, we have learned enough about the NFL landscape through these first three weeks to start contemplating the bigger picture. That includes the latest betting odds on the Super Bowl. And to that end, we're ready to make a proclamation: The Buffalo Bills should no longer be the NFL's Super Bowl favorites in 2022.
To be sure, this is different from saying the Bills, who only have one loss under their belt entering Week 4, aren't a Super Bowl contender at all. They are absolutely in the conversation. But pretty much all of the best online NFL betting sites still have them as the top championship option. We believe that is a massive mistake, and that the title of 2022 NFL Super Bowl favorite should go to another team.
Which team is that exactly? We'll get there in a minute. For now, let's take a look at the latest Super Bowl betting odds, which we've pulled from Bovada:
These NFL betting odds are accurate entering Week 4 on Tuesday, September 27. That means you'll want to double-check them right up until you make your Super Bowl picks, as linemakers will continue shifting the odds throughout the rest of the regular season.
And if you have not yet found a place to bet on the Super Bowl, then you'll definitely need to peruse our reviews of the top online sportsbooks. We have expertly and thoroughly pored over the nuts and bolts of every option out there, all so that you can spot the best 2022 NFL betting sites in the business.
So, have we ruled out the Buffalo Bills from winning the Super Bowl? And who is our brand new Super Bowl favorite? And are there any other best Super Bowl bets for you to consider the rest of the way? Find the answers below!
Should You Be Out on the Buffalo Bills to Win the Super Bowl?
Look, there's no reason to be too down on the Buffalo Bills. They beat up on the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans in Weeks 1 and 2, and they nearly bounced the undefeated Miami Dolphins in Week 3. There might be no team in the NFL with a better balance of dominance on both sides of the ball.
However, we are starting to question whether the offense is dynamic enough to hold up against stronger front sevens. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will make connections no matter what through the air, but the ground game looked a tad shaky versus Miami, and it's opened the door for doubt.
Without question, the Bills are one of the four or five best Super Bowl bets right now. But the absolute best? We're not so sure.
If Not the Buffalo Bills, Then Who?
The Kansas City Chiefs.
Slotting the Chiefs over the Buffalo Bills after they just lost to the Indianapolis Colts might seem counterintuitive. But trust us, it's not.
Kansas City has picked up two impressive wins against the Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals—two teams with dangerous offenses they held to under 24 points. Pair this type of defensive competence with an offense piloted by Patrick Mahomes, and we'd be lying if we said we weren't smitten by their 8-to-1 odds.
Better Super Bowl Bet Entering Week 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Philadelphia Eagles?
No team in the NFL has turned in a better defensive performance to date than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Meanwhile, perhaps no team has fared better on offense than the Philadelphia Eagles. With identical odds to win the Super Bowl, who should we choose?
We're going with the Bucs.
Though Tom Brady hasn't exactly looked elite this season, the Bucs are still experts on offense at controlling the clock. We also have to imagine the receivers and future Hall of Fame quarterback will improve upon their downfield playmaking over time.
The Eagles are a nice story, but considering them Super Bowl contenders goes a step too far.
Have the Miami Dolphins Entered the Super Bowl Discussion?
At this writing, the Dolphins are the only undefeated team in the NFL. Think about that. And then think about how they beat both the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens to snag two of their three victories.
Make no mistake, surviving an AFC conference that has the Bills, Ravens and Chiefs will be tough. But quarterback Tua Tagovailoa appears to have made the leap, and the Dolphins have surrounded him with a ton of big-play weapons.
Miami is officially a team to take seriously.
Better Super Bowl Bet Entering Week 4: Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers or Arizona Cardinals?
Good lord, the NFC West is a bloodbath.
Sure, the Seattle Seahawks are but footnotes as they begin their rebuild. But the reigning champion Rams still have a hellacious defense, and the San Francisco 49ers are once again elite on the less glamorous end, as well.
And guess what? Neither team is our pick.
That honor instead belongs to the Arizona Cardinals, in part because so many are sleeping on them. While the defense could be problematic, we actually think their poor stats are skewed by their one loss to the Chiefs.
Dig deeper, and you'll find a fairly stingy secondary, not to mention an offense around QB Kyle Murray that's built to go kaboom. On top of all that, the Cardinals are laying an enticing 65-to-1 return. We'll take that over the 20-to-1 odds being offered on the Rams and Niners.
Updated NFL Super Bowl Prediction: The Kansas City Chiefs are a MUCH Better Value Bet Than the Buffalo Bills
Let's make this clear so there's little room for doubt: We believe the Chiefs, not the Buffalo Bills, should be Super Bowl favorites. And Kansas City also happens to be our Super Bowl pick.
Potential hiccups abound for the Chiefs, but Mahomes is in top form and they have one of the league's sneakier defenses. In fact, when all's said and done, we wouldn't be shocked if they wind up cruising their way out of the AFC.
Pounce on the Chiefs laying 8-to-1 odds while you still can.
OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (+800)
Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your 2022 NFL betting:
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- 31
- 8
- 26
- 29
- 15
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- 5
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