Check out our latest Super Bowl 55 picks for the showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
2024 Super Bowl Predictions: The NFL Teams Most Likely to Win It All Next Season
Mar 08, 2023Super Bowl 55 Picks for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
And just like that, the NFL has its matchup for Super Bowl LV. The AFC champion Kansas Chiefs will be taking on the NFC champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sports bettors are already pouncing on lines. And you don't need to feel left out. We too have Super Bowl 55 picks for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers.
But before we get to breaking down every aspect of the big game, let's take a look at the latest Super Bowl odds, courtesy of BetOnline:
| Team |  |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -170 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +150 |
Pay attention to these Super Bowl lines. The game is two weeks away at this writing. The odds are going to move, so you'll need to check them before placing a wager.
Now, on to our Super Bowl LV picks!
Super Bowl 55: Chiefs @ Buccaneers Betting Breakdown
Since sportsbooks haven't yet hammered out their full list of Super Bowl props, we'll be working strictly with the three-game outcomes: moneyline, spread, and over/under. We'll begin with the moneyline.
Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (-170) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+150)
There is a lot at play here. First and foremost, any doubt oddsmakers had that Patrick Mahomes might struggle under center after exiting the NFL's concussion protocol is clearly gone. The Chiefs are pretty decided favorites, and he showed zero signs of lag during Kansas City's win over the Buffalo Bills, throwing for 385 yards and three touchdowns—all while also dealing with a case of turf toe.
On the flip side, we could very easily see the Bucs being even heavier underdogs. That they aren't is a testament to how much they've grown.
Sure, it doesn't hurt to have Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of all time. He threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns while effectively protecting the ball during the Bucs' conference championship win over the Green Bay Packers. That type of performance has basically become his M.O.
But the Bucs defense is also frisky. It doesn't matter that they're young. They are aggressive, with endless big-play potential. The slightest mistake by the opposing quarterback can become a turnover.
And yet, it's tough to get on board with the potential for an upset. The Bills boast a superior defense, and they just stumbled against the Chiefs. Kansas City is basically unguardable.
That reads like a cliche, and perhaps it is. That doesn't mean it isn't true. Buffalo essentially doubled both star wideout Tyreek Hill and best-tight-end-in-the-league Travis Kelce. It didn't work. Mahomes was able to develop a nice rapport with receiver Byron Pringle and still completed throws to Kelce underneath. The Chiefs also ran innovative rushing plays for Hill, and he was able to find breathing room a couple of times, even against Buffalo's ridiculously difficult front seven.
This is a bad omen for the Bills. Their defense specializes in annihilating the ground game. That figures to make them vulnerable through the air. Super Bowl 55 is Kansas City's to lose.
OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-170)
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5 for +100) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5 for -120)
If you want to bet on the Chiefs spread, we recommend doing so immediately. They won't be paying out 1-to-1 forever.
On a related note: You should definitely be betting on the Chiefs' spread.
Yes, there is a chance this is super close. The combination of Tampa Bay's run defense and their offense versus Kansas city's secondary could make for a game that comes down to the wire.
Even if it does, though, a four-point margin isn't a whole lot. Investing in the Bucs' spread effectively states this will come down to the final seconds and the Chiefs will win on a field goal, or that they won't win at all.
Indeed, Kansas City's victory over Tampa Bay at the end of November came by just three points. We're not worried. The Chiefs' average margin of victory this season, including during the playoffs, is more than a touchdown. If they're going to win, it's fairly safe to say they'll do so by more than a field goal.
In the event you're into history, then you'll also want to consider this: Only one Super Bowl since 2009 has been determined by fewer than four points.
OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5 for +100)
Over/Under: 56 (-110)
Super Bowls can so often turn into slogs, regardless of how talented the offenses playing the game may be. Everybody to some degree changes their style on the NFL's biggest stage.
In some instances, teams play tighter, because they're afraid to commit costly turnovers. In others, teams try to control the pace of play by mixing in more short-yardage pickups. And there's always a chance one team jumps out to a two-possession lead and decides to focus on burning the clock. All of these scenarios are recipes for the under.
Count us in for the over anyway.
Not only are the Chiefs and Bucs combining to score more than 60 points per game thus far, but football has never been more dependent on the passing game. Six of the last eight Super Bowls have covered the over as a result. We're steering into that trend.
OSB Prediction: Over 56 (-110)
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