Check out our updated Super Bowl 55 picks as the NFL prepares for the conference finals.
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With only four teams left in the NFL playoffs, it has never been more important to pencil in our updated Super Bowl 55 picks. There are no future bets to be made after the AFC and NFC championship games. There is only Super Bowl LV itself, and the less-than-lucrative lines that will be offered.
As it stands, the odds are already starting to correct themselves. Every team is still laying better than even money, but you're no longer looking at 5-to-1 payouts or longer. All four squads are laying 4-to-1 or better.
Take a look at the latest Super Bowl lines before we get to our picks, courtesy of BetOnline:
|Kansas City Chiefs||+200|
|Green Bay Packers||+200|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+375|
These Super Bowl LV odds are constantly changing, so you'll need to confirm them before deciding on a wager. But you'll definitely want to submit your bet soon, otherwise you'll be dealing with just the regular Super Bowl game line. Luckily, though, we've got piping-hot Super Bowl picks fresh out of the oven and ready to serve.
Super Bowl LV Betting Breakdown
Before we do anything, we have to determine who will be participating in the Super Bowl. That leaves us to parse the NFL conference championship lines. Let's start with the AFC.
Kansas City Chiefs (-145) vs. Buffalo Bills (+125)
Under normal circumstances, most would expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be starker favorites over the Buffalo Bills. That they aren't is a testament to how far the Bills have come.
Quarterback Josh Allen is in his bag lately. He has Buffalo ranked second in points scored per game and has really showcased his underrated mobility over the past few weeks. The performance he pieced together during the Bills' divisional-round win over the Baltimore Ravens was far from spectacular, but that's to be expected. Baltimore touts the NFL's second-best defense. It is more important that he protected the ball and committed zero turnovers in the face of a slog.
Playing the Chiefs will be a more forgiving experience. They have big-play potential on defense, but their secondary isn't nearly as tenacious. Allen will have the opportunity to complete more passes downfield. Don't be surprised if this game turns into a shootout. (The over/under is 53 at -110, and we're hammering the over.)
But the Bills' limited underdog line isn't solely achieved by their own hand. Uncertainty over the status of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes abounds. He suffered what was diagnosed as a concussion during Kansas City's divisional-round victory over the Cleveland Browns, and he has yet to exit the league's protocol.
Publicly, the Chiefs have been confident that he'll be okay. For his part, Mahomes tweeted as much. But he apparently tweaked a nerve in his neck, and with less than a week to go before the AFC Championship, nobody can be sure he'll be ready to rock.
Oddsmakers have baked this into their projections. Not only on the Chiefs slighter-than-expected favorites, but their -3 spread is paying +100 at BetOnline. Though there is risk involved in making your decision now, we strongly recommend betting on the Chiefs' moneyline or spread. The odds will only implode once Mahomes is cleared to play.
OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-145)
Green Bay Packers (-190) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+165)
Many people will be reluctant to put the Green Bay Packers on upset watch.
For starters, the worries about their top-ranked offense are starting to fade. Aaron Rodgers is not only a shoo-in to win MVP, but the Packers are getting Pro Bowl-type contributions from Aaron Jones. Between the play of their offensive line in recent weeks and Rodgers' vision in the pock, they're built to pick apart any defense.
It also helps that they're playing at Lambeau Field, where they have lost just once all season. Not only that, but their margin of victory averages out to nearly two touchdowns per game. This doesn't bode well for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are used to playing in a warm-weather climate.
Still, we can't help but be drawn to the Bucs. It isn't so much Tom Brady and the third-ranked offense. Sure, that's part of the calculus. The Bucs will dissect you slowly, using a combination of solid run-blocking, screen passes and throws underneath.
Lately, though, their defense has become the lifeblood of the performance. Tampa Bay is young on that side of the ball, but they also boast a unique mix of aggression and discipline. They may not coax Rodgers into a ton of turnovers, but they're going to put pressure on him and guard downfield like no other team. Count us as upset believers.
We don't recommend betting on any other aspect of this game. The spread is four points and only pays out 115, and this matchup is too close to call. Meanwhile, an over/under of 50.5 is too dicey in the ultra-cold weather that awaits the Packers and Bucs at Lambeau.
OSB Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+165)
Super Bowl LV Prediction
Just as a refresher, here are the Super Bowl odds for our two predicted finalists:
- Chiefs (+200)
- Bucs (+375)
Forecasting another upset is tempting. After all, we still don't know the status of Patrick Mahomes for the AFC Championship. The Super Bowl could end up featuring the Bills and Bucs for all we know, a matchup that would, in our estimation, drastically favor Tampa Bay.
But assuming the Chiefs make it this far, we cannot pick against the reigning champs. Mahomes has the passing offense ranked in the top five of every single category you could imagine, and Kansas City, in general, is excellent at managing the clock when they get leads.
At their current rate, Tamp Bay's defense has the tools to make this prospective showdown close. But neither that nor Brady's steady hand will be enough to get them past what should be a fully healthy Chiefs squad.
OSB Super Bowl Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (+200)
Check out our list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all your NFL betting: