Can the Miami Dolphins Snap Their Losing Streak in Week 16 vs the Green Bay Packers?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Can the Miami Dolphins Snap Their Losing Streak in Week 16 vs the Green Bay Packers?

After scanning the latest odds to make the 2022 NFL playoffs, one thing becomes clear: Linemakers might be out on the Miami Dolphins.

Following their loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, the Dolphins have now dropped three straight. And at 8-6 entering their Week 16 showdown against the Green Bay Packers, Miami's odds to make the AFC playoffs are no longer a lock. That makes this a must-win game.

Fortunately, the Dolphins are hosting the Packers in Florida on Saturday, December 24. But if we've learned anything this season, it's that nothing is a given. The Dolphins could lose. Will they? That's a different story. And before we attempt to tackle it, let's have a look at the latest NFL online betting odds for the Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers game, courtesy of the folks over at BetOnline:

Miami Dolphins-210+176Green Bay Packers

As always, please remember to recheck these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your picks for Miami vs Green Bay. Our odds on Dolphins vs. Packers are accurate entering Monday, December 19. That gives linemakers plenty of runway to make changes between now and Sunday's opening kickoff.

Speaking of linemakers, have you checked out our reviews of the top online sportsbooks yet? If not, then you should. They are all loaded with incredibly useful information that can help you identify all the best online betting sites for NFL football and the Super Bowl 2023.

Enough smalltalk, though. Let's dive into our predictions for Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers.

Are the Miami Dolphins Still An NFL Playoff Lock?

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Dolphins remain close to a playoff lock. Their odds to make the NFL playoffs sit just a hair above 75 percent entering Week 16's tilt against the Packers. 

Granted, this statistical model isn't an end-all. But it is useful. It takes into account what the Dolphins have done to date as well as the schedule to come. For Week 16, specifically, it helps a bunch that Miami is playing at home. The Packers have struggled to win on the road this year, going 2-5 combined, while the Dolphins just wrapped up a streak of three straight games away from Florida—all of which they lost.

Trusting Miami's defense remains a shaky proposition. Only four teams have allowed more passing touchdowns, and they've seen their ability to limit yards on rushing opportunities gradually devolve. Through their past three games, the Dolphins are also allowing opponents to average more than 29.3 points. 

Still, that stretch came against tougher offenses. The Bills (Week 15) have a superstar in his prime under center, in Josh Allen. Ditto for the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 14), in Justin Herbert. And the loss to the San Francisco 49ers (Week 14) saw Miami go up against one of the strongest rushing attacks and offensive lines around.

Handling the Packers will be much easier. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers remains a megastar, but his offensive line is shoddy, his receiving core is shallow, and Green Bay is averaging barely 20 points per game as his capacity to make reads under duress slumps downward. Unless you think the Packers defense will suddenly, and magically, learn how to prevent opposing QBs from completing downfield throws, this should be a game Miami wins rather handedly.

OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins (-210)

Miami Dolphins To beat the Green Bay Packers

Why You Should Avoid Betting on the Packers to Cover the Point Spread Against the Dolphins

Below you can see the latest NFL point spread betting odds for the Week 16 matchup between the Dolphins and Packers:

  • Miami Dolphins, -4.5 (-106)
  • Green Bay Packers, +4.5 (-114)

Picking the Dolphins to cover the point spread against the Packers will be tough for some to wrap their head around. So many of Miami's games and victories have been determined by fewer than five points. There's also something about a three-game losing streak that makes you hesitant to believe they can comfortably outpace opponents.

Resist the temptation to favor the Packers anyway. Their offense has been way too inconsistent (23rd in points per game), and we're not entirely sure they won't bench Aaron Rodgers to finish the season. He is widely expected to force a trade in a few months, and the organization may not want to risk damaging his value on the market.

Beyond that, the Dolphins have predominantly killed it at home. They have lost just one game all year in Miami, and their average margin of victory in front of the home crowd sits at 13.2 points.

OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins, -4.5 (-106)

Miami Dolphins To cover the point spread against the Green Bay Packers

Is the Over/Under for Miami vs. Green Bay Too High?

Here are the latest NFL point over/under betting odds for Packers vs. Dolphins in Week 16:

  • Over 46.5 (-110)
  • Under 46.5 (-110)

After emerging as one of the better "over" bets in the league, the Dolphins have pulled back to 7-7 against the "over" for the year. Linemakers wised up to their big-play potential and moved game totals accordingly. The Dolphins also failed to eclipse 20 points in two of their three previous games.

We still believe in their potential to score in a hurry. The Tua Tagovailoa-Tyreek Hill connection down the field remains ultra-dangerous, and we just saw them hang 29 points on the Bills defense. This pick comes down to whether you think the Packers will move the chains enough to tally around 20 to 23 points of their own.

OSB Prediction: Under 48.5 

Dolphins and Packers To score

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can decide which one to use for all of your NFL betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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