Will the Buffalo Bills Add to the 2023 New England Patriots' Misery in Week 7?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Oct 17, 2023 12:00 AM
Can the New England Patriots pull off a Week 7 miracle vs the Buffalo Bills?

Even if it hasn’t always been pretty, the Buffalo Bills continue to win at an extremely high clip. Their latest test comes against the New England Patriots, who have just one victory entering this NFL Week 8 matchup, which will kick off on Sunday, October 22, at 1 p.m. eastern standard time, on the field at Gillette Stadium, in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

As you can tell from the latest NFL online betting odds for Patriots vs. Bills, linemakers don’t expect New England to have much of a chance:

FavoriteBetOnlineBetOnlineUnderdog
Buffalo Bills-390+310New England Patriots

Despite the decided nature of these online NFL betting odds, you should remember to keep checking them until you actually submit your wager. Our Bills vs. Patriots Week 7 betting odds are accurate as of Monday, October 16. This gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make any adjustments depending on how the middle-of-the-week market shifts the action.

For now, though, it’s pretty clear the Bill should be favored to beat the Patriots. Buffalo is, after all, among the most popular betting options to win this NFL season’s Super Bowl. And yet, the Bills have shown some cracks on the offensive side of the ball to start the year. Is that something worth harping on entering their Week 7 showdown in Foxborough?

Will the Buffalo Bills be Impacted by Josh Allen’s Shoulder Injury

Though the Bills currently rank third in points scored per game, they have piqued some concern after combining to tally just 34 points over their last two outings. Their 14-9 victory over the New York Giants this past week, in particular, raised some alarm bells. 

Running back Damien Harris went to the hospital after suffering a scary hit in the game. He has since returned home and is reportedly doing well, but he currently has neck pain and is in the NFL’s concussion protocol, according to ESPN. On top of that, it was recently brought to light that star quarterback Josh Allen was dealing with a right arm injury. As outlined by the folks over at Buffalo Rumblings, he was pulled from the win over the Giants for a handful of plays to be checked for a concussion. While he returned to the game and looked visibly uncomfortable. 

Both of these injuries could be a big deal. Harris helps set up the passing game, but he’s unlikely to play, which restricts Buffalo’s offensive optionality. And though Allen said he was fine, the Bills obviously can’t afford to be without him or, frankly, have him playing at anything materially less than 100 percent.

On the bright side, Allen’s passing metrics actually improved against the Giants in the second half, after he suffered his injury. On the not-so-bright side, New England’s defense has proved fairly stout against the passing game. They don’t force a ton of turnovers, but they are seventh in passing touchdowns allowed as well as 16th in net yards surrendered per passing attempt.

Knowing that Allen was just limited to 169 passing yards against a not-so-scary Giants defense, we can’t help but wonder whether the Patriots sneak in here for an ultra-outside victory. In the end, we can’t quite get there. Even if the Bills go belly up on offense, the defense can carry the show. Their ability to make big plays without nuking their coverage entirely is special. Buffalo is third in interceptions forced and second in the percentage of opponent drives that end in turnovers. It might be a long day for the Bills’ offense, but it’s going to be an even longer one for the Patriots’ attack.

OSB Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-390)

Buffalo Bills To beat the New England Patriots
Bovada
-390

Should You Trust Buffalo to Cover Against New England in Week 7?

After finding out about Allen’s injury, we knew the Bills vs. Patriots moneyline odds would be difficult to parse. And as you can below, that’s exactly what it is:

  • Buffalo Bills, -8.5 (-110)
  • New England Patriots, +8.5 (-110)

The public hasn’t yet chosen a side—at least not decidedly. Typically, given how poorly the Patriots offense has fared, we’d be prepared to smash the Buffalo Bills’ moneyline. This temptation intensifies knowing that New England’s quarterback, Mac Jones, doesn’t appear to have job security. Signal-caller limbos never bode well.

Nevertheless, between Allen’s injury and Harris’ expected absence for Buffalo, we think this game will winds up closer than it should be.

OSB Prediction: New England Patriots, +8.5 (-110)

New England Patriots To cover the point spread against the Buffalo Bills
Bovada
-110

It Appears Oddsmakers Are Expecting a Higher-Scoring Game Between the Bills and Patriots

A handful of NFL over/under betting lines in Week 7 are checking in at 40 points or lower. You’d probably expect the Bills vs. Patriots game to rank among them. But it doesn’t. See for yourself:

  • Over 41.5 (-110)
  • Under 41.5 (-110)

We’re actually a little uncomfortable with how confident we are in the “under.” The Patriots offense has total 35 points over their past four games combined and have yet to score more than 20 in a single outing on the season. Facing Buffalo’s defense isn’t going to improve their state of affairs.

Meanwhile, while the Bills have the potential to float this scoring total on their own, they’ve had a down couple of weeks. Josh Allen may play, but with a shoulder injury looming, we think it’s smart to keep expectations measured. If you're asking us whether they'll top 30 points, we'd currently say no. And they'll need to clear that number for this to hit the "over"—unless the defense completely collapses.

OSB Prediction: Under 41.5 (-110)

Bills and Patriots To score under 41.5 combined points
Bovada
-110

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Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan first began writing about sports back in 2011. At the time, his expertise lied in the NBA and NFL. More than one decade, that remains the case. But he's also expanded his catalog to include extensive knowledge and analysis on the NHL, MLB, tennis, NASCAR, college ba...

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