The Buffalo Bills opened up the 2023 NFL regular season as one of the two betting favorites to win the Super Bowl as most of the best football gambling sites. Ever since then, they have been the league’s wildest roller coaster. And entering Week 10, in a matchup with the Denver Broncos, on Monday, November 13, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, the boys in blue, white and red desperately need that to change.
Fortunately for Bills fans, the latest NFL online betting odds heavily favor a Buffalo victory:
Favorite 
Underdog Buffalo Bills -405 +320 Denver Broncos
As always, please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Bills vs. Broncos Week 10 betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, November 8. That allows the best NFL online betting sites to adjust their lines depending on how the markets shake out in advance of opening kick-off for Monday Night Football.
The overarching question ahead of this matchup: Have the Bills earned the right to be heavily favored? They began the season with a disastrous loss at the hands of the New York Jets. They followed that up with three straight victories, including a Week 5 rout of the Miami Dolphins. However, they are 2-3 in their past five games. And not one of those two victories came against a prospective 2023 NFL playoff team. This stretch can only be described as disastrous. And it has many wondering whether the Bills need to be taken seriously any longer.
Winning against the Broncos, of course, won’t disprove all doubts. But it’d be a good start.
The Buffalo Bills Cannot Afford to Take the Denver Broncos Lightly
A lot of the Bills’ biggest problems have been self-inflicted during their 2-3 stretch. Turnovers have come back to haunt them; they’ve committed nine over the past five weeks. Though they limited themselves to just one in Week 9, they still fell to the Cincinnati Bengals due to some wonky decision-making from quarterback Josh Allen late in the game.
Buffalo’s offense has now also been held to 20 or fewer points three times over this span. They notched a combined 38 points against the elite defenses of Cincinnati and the Jacksonville Jaguars. This will be something to monitor as they host the Broncos.
Don’t let Denver’s numbers for the season fool you. They may rank 31st in points allowed per game, but that placement is skewed by the 70-point drubbing they were delivered by the Dolphins in Week 3. The Broncos have picked up their defensive pace in recent weeks. In the three games leading into their Week 9 Buy, they allowed an average of 17 points—a stretch that included holding the Kansas City Chiefs to fewer than 20 points not just once, but twice.
Luckily for the Bills, the Broncos aren’t wired to chase turnovers. That should give Allen ample time to make the right decisions in the pocket. On the downside, Denver excels at keeping QBs stationary. Only a handful of teams have faced less scrambles on the season. Allen won’t have the runway to move around even just to get a better line of sight. And there’s always the chance that the Broncos defense goes kaboom despite their more balanced approach. They forced five turnovers in their Week 8 upset of the Chiefs.
Ultimately, the Bills should have enough to squeak out a victory. Russell Wilson and the Denver offense have been anything but trustworthy. They continue to struggle moving the chains beyond short yardage plays. Buffalo’s sheer downfield gall should earn them a victory here.
OSB Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-405)
Expect Denver vs. Buffalo to be Closer Than the Odds Suggest
Despite their recent issues, the Bills are favored by more than a touchdown, as you can see below:
- Buffalo Bills, -7.5 (-110)
- Denver Broncos, +7.5 (-110)
The initial action appears to have shifted the line even higher. Denver originally opened as six- and 6.5-point underdogs at most football betting sites.
For our money, Buffalo hasn’t yet earned that type of faith. They have all the tools to be elite—maybe even dominant. But this spate of inconsistency against upper-echelon isn’t some one- or two-off problem. It is now a well established trend.
We expect the Broncos to turn this contest into a slug fest. The Bills will need to work extremely hard to pick up yards, and they may even be forced to lean heavily upon the backfield—which hasn’t been their strong suit this season.
OSB Prediction: Denver Broncos, +7.5 (-110)
Linemakers Don’t Think The Broncos Will be Able to Slow the Bills Offense
Judging from the latest NFL Week 10 over/under betting lines, oddsmakers aren’t worried about the Bills’ offense putting points on the board:
- Over 47 (-108)
- Under 47 (-112)
Bettors don’t seem to share this sentiment. Most of the action so far has been funneled toward the “under.” That is also the direction in which we’re leaning.
While the Broncos do rank third in passing touchdowns, they haven’t hit the 25-point benchmark since Week 4. Buffalo, meanwhile, has touched the 25-point marker just once since Week 4.
Relative to the Bills’ recent struggles and Denver’s much-improved defense, this is a game that we think will fail to total even 45 points.
OSB Prediction: Under 47 (-112)
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