Super Bowl 58 Picks: Can the Kansas City Chiefs Upset the San Francisco 49ers?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Feb 8, 2024 07:00 PM
Super Bowl 58 Picks: Can the Kansas City Chiefs Upset the San Francisco 49ers?

Well, we’re finally here, at Super Bowl 58. The entire NFL regular season and 2024 NFL playoffs have been leading to this moment. And the matchup we’re getting after all the hoopla has not disappointed. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will meet again, just like they did for Super Bowl 54 in 2020.

  • What: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
  • Date: Sunday, February 11, 2024
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. eastern standard time
  • Where: Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada
  • Point Spread: 49ers (-1.5), Chiefs (+1.5)

Kansas City took the championship home last time. But we are entering under very different circumstances roughly four years later. The most notable difference, of course, is that the Chiefs are not favored to win. The latest odds to win Super Bowl 58 currently tilt toward the 49ers:

San Francisco 49ers-124+106Kansas City Chiefs

Please remember to keep double-checking these online NFL playoff betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our 49ers vs. Chiefs betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, January 30. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on February 11.

For this game, specifically, expect there to be a ton of movement. Not only are the Super Bowl 58 betting lines already incredibly close, but we have nearly two weeks before game time. That gap in itself invites a smattering of changes.

Who knows, the Chiefs could be favorites to beat the 49ers by opening kick-off. Especially because San Francisco’s star running back Christian McCaffrey is dealing with a shoulder injury that forced him out of the NFC Championship.

So, which team is winning Super Bowl 58? Let’s unpack it all!

Should the San Francisco 49ers Really be Favorites to Win Super Bowl 58?

While we are not surprised the 49ers are favored to beat the Chiefs, we don’t quite agree with the decision. To be sure, the McCaffrey injury doesn’t have us running scared. He said after the win over the Lions that he was fine and didn’t anticipate having an issue ahead of Super Bowl 58. The extra week off in between assuredly helps.

Still, the Niners offense is hardly firing on every cylinder during the postseason. Quarterback Brock Purdy has struggled to read defenses on a consistent basis through the past two games. He’s completing barely over 60 percent of his passes, and he has thrown just two touchdowns despite not facing particularly stingy defenses.

Granted, the Chiefs’ offense must labor through their own inconsistency. Patrick Mahomes has seen his receivers drop more passes this year than the past two seasons combined (probably). But this isn’t proving to be as big of an issue during the playoffs. Travis Kelce caught all 11 of his targets in the AFC Championship, and wideout Rashee Rice has emerged as a reliable favorite for Kansas City’s signal-caller. 

This is ultimately the difference for us. The defenses feel evenly matched. Though, the Niners are 24th in third down defense, which doesn’t bode well against Mahomes. Things don’t feel as close on offense. The Chiefs are ascending, largely because they have a two-time Super Bowl winner and the best QB in the game under center. But the Niners, right now, appear to be fading. And given how adept Kansas City is at limiting big plays, San Francisco’s offense could be in for a loooong Super Bowl 58.

OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (+104)

Kansas City Chiefs To beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58

Oddsmakers Seem to Think 49ers vs. Chiefs will Come Down to the Wire…

It’s always a little bit of a letdown when NFL Super Bowl point spread betting lines include a sizable gap between the two teams. It suggests we may not get a classic championship showdown. Fortunately, this isn’t the case for Super Bowl 58, as you can see below:

  • San Francisco 49ers, -1.5 (-112)
  • Kansas City Chiefs, +1.5 (-108)

Most of the action is getting funneled towards the 49ers. That’s not surprising. Betting out of the gate typically tilts toward the favorites, and San Francisco’s point spread offers a better payout than their moneyline. 

There’s not much of a decision for us to make here, though. We have the Chiefs winning Super Bowl 58. So, we are of course going with Kansas City at +1.5. However, if you’re not sold on the Chiefs winning, you’re better off with the Niners’ point spread or avoiding outright Super Bowl bets altogether.

We also strongly recommend finding NFL online sports betting sites that allow you to parlay point spread and moneyline picks together. The potential to drive up your payout is always enticing when the point spread is this closely intertwined.

OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs, +1.5 (-108)

Kansas City Chiefs To cover the spread against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58

Should We Expect Super Bowl 58 to be a Clash of Defensive Titans?

Both the Niners and Chiefs enter Super Bowl 58 with top-three defenses. On the season, they are each averaging a hair over 17 points per contest. That’s under 35 points combined. And yet, the Super Bowl 58 over/under betting lines are coming in much higher than that:

  • Over 47.5 (-110)
  • Under 47.5 (-110)

This is no doubt a sign of respect for San Francisco’s and Kansas City’s offenses. But we’re not quite sure they deserve it.

The Niners have struggled to move the ball through much of their first two playoff games. And the Chiefs, by comparison, still suffer from serial dropping in the receiving ranks. Patrick Mahomes has needed to lean almost exclusively on tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Rashee Rice during Kansas City’s postseason push. A lack of distribution will be more of an issue against the Niners’ high-octane defense.

Beyond all that, San Francisco and Kansas City both simply kick butt on defense. Nobody is better at limiting big-yardage gains than the Chiefs, and the Niners, despite their struggles on later-downs, rank first in interceptions forced. Defense will prevail in this matchup.

OSB Prediction: Under 47.5 (-110)

Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers To combine for under 47.5 points in Super Bowl 58

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2024 NFL betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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