Kansas City Chiefs Need to Take Week 13 Showdown with Green Bay Packers Seriously

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Apr 9, 2024 08:00 PM
Kansas City Chiefs Need to Take Week 13 Showdown with Green Bay Packers Seriously

The Kansas City Chiefs enter their Week 13 matchup with the Green Bay Packers as one of the teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl. However, recent losses to the Denver Broncos (Week 8) and Philadelphia Eagles (Week 11) have somewhat narrowed their margin for error.

Make no mistake, the Chiefs are unlikely to drop out of first place in the AFC West. They still have a commanding lead. At the same time, a loss on Sunday, December 3, at 8:20 p.m. eastern standard time, on Lambeau Field in Green Bay Wisconsin, would put them in a precarious situation. Especially if the Broncos pull off a win against the Houston Texans

Of course, the latest NFL online betting odds don’t think Kansas City is in any real danger of succumbing to a trap game:

Kansas City Chiefs-290+235Green Bay Packers

Like always, please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Chiefs vs. Packers Week 13 betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 28. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on Sunday night.

While the Chiefs are working off a two-touchdown road victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week, they have turned in some uncharacteristically close calls against inferior opponents this year. And as we all know, winning at Lambeau Field is no small task. The Packers remain above .500 at home this season, despite all their struggles. This likely explains why the Chiefs are not 3-to-1 favorites or better to win. But is there any cause for concern? Or is this Kansas City’s game to lose?

Stout Defense Arguably Makes the Kansas City Chiefs Even More Dangerous Than Their Record Suggests

This is kind of a bonkers thing to say. The Chiefs are 8-3, with top-tier Super Bowl odds. Those credentials do not scream “underrated!” Yet, it still doesn’t feel like we’re giving enough credit to the defense.

Kansas City is third in points allowed per game and third in net yards allowed per passing attempt. They are 28th in net yards allowed per rushing attempt, but they’re not letting those plays translate to scores. The Chiefs are eighth in total rushing touchdowns allowed. 

Incredible still, Kansas City has tightened up when it matters most. They are 13th in third down defense and fifth in fourth-down defense. Their 27th-place ranking in red zone defense is a little unsettling, but teams aren’t getting inside the 20-yard line against them very often. The average rival offensive possession lasts two minutes and 41 seconds—the 13th best mark in the league. Even better, the Chiefs are allowed 1.44 points per drive. That’s the third-best mark in the NFL. 

Going against Green Bay’s offense shouldn’t faze Kansas City. The Packers are middle of the road in just about every category that matters. And they’re just 22nd in red zone offense, which should give the Chiefs some respite from their own struggles.

We admittedly gave this game additional consideration knowing it’s being played at Lambeau Field. But all three wins the Packers have picked up at home have come against non-playoff teams. Their two losses, meanwhile, came against the Minnesota Vikings before they lost Kirk Cousins for the season and against the Detroit Lions. The Chiefs are better than both squads and won’t be caught off guard by the freezing-cold weather. Green Bay is working off straight victories, but an upset feels unlikely.

OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-290)

Kansas City Chiefs To beat the Green Bay Packers

Will the Green Bay Packers Defense Make Life Difficult on Kansas City in Week 13?

After two straight victories, the Packers aren’t getting as many points against the Chiefs as you might expect. Check out the latest NFL Week 13 point spread betting odds for yourself:

  • Kansas City Chiefs, -6.5 (-118)
  • Green Bay Packers, +6.5 (-104)

Home cooking is definitely at play. The Packers have a winning record at Lambeau Field this season. At the same time, both of their losses came by two touchdowns apiece. They are not guaranteed to keep things close. 

To that end, the Chiefs aren’t guaranteed to blow them out. Just three of Kansas City’s victories this season have come by more than 11 points. And only one of their road victories has come by more than eight points. Given how well the Packers just defended quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Jared Goff, we think they stand a fighting chance at limiting Patrick Mahomes’ heroics.

OSB Prediction: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers To cover the point spread against the Kansas City Chiefs

Will Chiefs vs. Packers be a Defensive Slug Fest?

The Packers enter Week 13 with a top-nine defense. The Chiefs enter with a top-three defense. Put those together, and what do you get? This batch of NFL Week 13 over/under betting lines:

  • Over 42.5 (-106)
  • Under 42.5 (-114)

Since Week 3, the Packers have allowed more than 20 points just twice. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have allowed more than 20 points just three times all season. This is all to say, defense could wind up defining this game.

That’s not something we’re used to saying when Patrick Mahomes is involved. But the Chiefs’ offense has proven mortal on more than one occasion this year. Turnovers and a spotty rushing attack are largely to blame. We don’t expect the Packers’ defense to make life any easier on them. 

And thanks to Green Bay’s own offensive foibles, the “under” is a relatively easy call for us. The Packers have faced four decidedly above-average defenses since their Week 6 bye. They’re averaging just 16.5 points in those outings. There’s a chance they fare even worse against an elite defensive attack like the one Kansas City deploys.

OSB Prediction: Under 42.5 (-114)

Chiefs and Packers To score under 42.5 combined points

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2023 NFL betting:

Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan Favale leverages over 12 years of sports journalism expertise in his role as New York staff writer. He provides in-depth analysis across the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, tennis, NASCAR, college basketball, and sports betting. Dan co-hosts the popular Hardwood Knocks NBA podc...

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