Are the Kansas City Chiefs on Upset Alert vs the Miami Dolphins?

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Oct 31, 2023 12:00 AM
The Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs are headed for a Week 9 NFL classic showdown.

The NFL is headed to Germany in Week 9! This international showcase will feature the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins. They will face off on Sunday, November 5, at 12:30 p.m. eastern standard time, on the field at Deutsche Bank Stadium in Frankfurt, Germany

Playing on neutral territory, in front of international crowds, often results in closely contested football betting lines. That’s exactly what we have in Week 9. Here are the latest NFL online betting odds for Dolphins vs. Chiefs:

FavoriteBovadaBovadaUnderdog
Kansas City Chiefs-146+124Miami Dolphins

Please make sure to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, October 30. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to adjust their lines in advance of Sunday afternoon’s kick-off.

Anyone who has followed the Chiefs over the past few weeks might see incredible value in their betting line. But we’d caution against making any sweeping assumptions. Traveling across the pond and acclimating to the time difference invariably acts like playing off a shortened week. And while we wouldn’t read too much into their Week 8 loss against the Denver Broncos, Patrick Mahomes is still recovering from the flu. 

Does it all add up to the Chiefs entering Week 9 on upset alert? Or will the Dolphins’ electric offense fold against yet another Super Bowl contender?

The State May be Set for the Dolphins to Get Their First Trademark Win of the 2023 NFL Season

Suggesting that the Dolphins don’t have a trademark win despite entering Week 9 is pretty bold. It’s also true. Miami’s two losses have come against the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles, the only two Super Bowl contenders they’ve faced so far. Meanwhile, all six of their victories have come against opponents currently sitting under .500.

Squaring off with the Chiefs will be a real test for Miami’s offense. Kansas City somewhat quietly ranks second in points allowed per game while also placing fourth in net yards allowed per passing attempt. Few secondaries have the speed and skill to keep pace with wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Chiefs have one of them. Miami will need quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to extend more plays with his feet and make quicker decisions that can carve up Kansas City in the middle of the field.

Under normal circumstances, none of this probably matters. The Dolphins defense has proven shaky against some demonstratively weaker opponents. Mahomes and crew are built to light them up downfield and near the sidelines. 

Still, we find ourselves wondering how much international travel will inhibit Mahomes’ ability to get over the flu. He looked out of sorts against Denver, tossing two interceptions against zero touchdowns. The Dolphins won’t generate nearly as much pressure on him in the pocket, but they will score enough to put the onus on Kansas City’s passing offense. Given how effective Miami has been on the ground, in addition to through the air, their more dynamic attack makes all the difference for us.

OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins (+124)

Miami Dolphins To beat the Kansas City Chiefs
Bovada
+124

What will be the Margin of Victory in Dolphins vs. Chiefs?

Linemakers currently have this game being decided by less than a field. You can see the latest Chiefs vs. Dolphins point spread betting lines just below:

  • Kansas City Chiefs, -2.5 (-115)
  • Miami Dolphins, +2.5 (-105)

Returns are already shifting if you bet on the Chiefs point spread. That makes the Dolphins even more intriguing to us. They understand their odds to make the NFL playoffs and meaningfully contend for a Super Bowl appearance are on the line. It would not surprise us if Miami turned in their best defensive outing of the season.

To that end, we still prefer betting on the Dolphins moneyline. It pays out noticeably better than even money, coming in at almost 1.25-to-1. But if you’d like to hedge your risk, it’s totally possible that two of the best passing offenses in the NFL exchange big play for big play en route to a 34-31 victory—or something similar.

OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins, +2.5 (-105)

Miami Dolphins To cover the point spread against the Kansas City Chiefs
Bovada
-105

Don’t Let the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins Point Total Scare You Away

As expected, the over/under betting lines for Chiefs vs. Dolphins are the largest on the NFL’s Week 9 slate:

  • Over 50.5 (-112)
  • Under 50.5 (-108)

Games taking place in international venues have a way of scaring people off the over/under. We have also seen some outlets suggest that the “under” is statistically more likely, thanks to the time differences, extra travel and neutral-territory elements.

This, as far we know, is patently false. Looking at just NFL games in London, the “over” has cleared in a little more than 50 percent of the time. Yes, we know Germany isn’t London. But similar logic applies. This isn’t enough of a trend to infer anything.

Typically, we’d avoid the “over” on 50.5-point lines like the plague. But we’re feeling bold this time around. The Dolphins are averaging around 34 points per game by themselves and haven’t slowed down against elite defenses. And though Kansas City’s offense has slumped at times, Miami’s own defense is opponent-friendly. There's a real chance both of these teams wind up scoring more than 30 points. So, if you're going to take a risk, it might be worth attempting to "sell" some points on the over/under to increase your return. 

OSB Prediction: Over 50.5 (-110)

Chiefs and Dolphins To score over 50.5 combined points
Bovada
-110

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Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan first began writing about sports back in 2011. At the time, his expertise lied in the NBA and NFL. More than one decade, that remains the case. But he's also expanded his catalog to include extensive knowledge and analysis on the NHL, MLB, tennis, NASCAR, college ba...

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