It’s the dawn of a new era for the New York Jets. Star quarterback Aaron Rodgers is slated to make his debut during their Week 1 matchup against division rival Buffalo Bills, on Monday, September 11, at 8:15 p.m. eastern standard time, at MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Anticipation is, naturally, high. But can the Jets begin the Aaron Rodgers era with an upset victory? The latest NFL online betting odds would suggest no:
Favorite 
Underdog Buffalo Bills -138 +118 New York Jets
Remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Bills vs. Jets betting odds are accurate as of Sunday, September 3. That gives the best online sportsbooks in the United States plenty of time to make adjustments prior to the opening kick-off on Sunday afternoon. In this case, we expect there to be more than a fair share of tweaks made to Jets vs. Bills betting lines. Not only are opening week odds always a little turbulent, but Rodgers was battling injuries all training camp, and New York also has two position players on offense listed as questionable at this writing.
Given all those caveats, it’s a minor miracle the Bills aren’t heavier favorites. That raises an interesting question: Is New York actually a threat to pull off the upset?
Why Aren’t the Buffalo Bills Heavier Favorites to Beat the New York Jets in Week 1?
Two forces are driving the tightly contested moneyline for Bills vs. Jets: location and popularity. New York is playing at home. That will always be worth a little benefit of the doubt. More than anything, though, this is the Aaron Rodgers effect.
Remember: Betting lines are a reflection of the market. And judging from this matchup’s numbers, it’s pretty clear the public has flocked toward the Jets. This often happens with larger markets and flagship franchises. It is even more prevalent when an already-popular team lands a marquee name like Rodgers.
But that doesn’t mean the Jets are actually equipped to hang with the Bills—who, by the way, entered last season as the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl. On the contrary, we’re not too sure New York stands a real chance.
Yes, most analysts expect Rodgers to suit up in Week 1. But he didn’t get a ton of reps with the first-string options before now. On top of that, starting running back Breece Hall and wideout Allen Lazard are both listed as questionable. If even one of them is a no-go, the Jets’ offense will be significantly weaker.
Heck, even if New York is at full strength, they’ll be working from a deficit. The Bills’ core has far more experience together. And for as much as they disappointed their fans in the postseason, Buffalo still ranked second in points scored per game last year. New York doesn’t have the defensive depth to hang with the Bills’ passing attack.
OSB Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-138)
Should You Count on New York to Remain within Striking Distance of Buffalo?
Here are the latest NFL point spread betting lines for this Jets vs. Bills matchup:
- Buffalo Bills, -2.5 (-110)
- New York Jets, +2.5 (-110)
Our response to this sub-three-point spread? Don’t be surprised if this turns into a blowout.
Sure, the Jets revamped their offense. And yes, they were fourth in points allowed per game last year. But New York, as we already mentioned, is dealing with a handful of injuries on the offensive side. And that says nothing of the learning curve Rodgers must be given as he navigates joining a new team for the first time of his career.
Beyond that, we just appreciate the Bills’ stability. Tremaine Edmunds is the only mission critical defensive player they lost over the offseason, and they added much-needed protection to the offensive line with Connor McGovern.
There’s actually a chance this year’s Bills team is better than last season’s iteration. It hinges on Stefon Diggs staying healthy and rookie Dorian Williams offsetting Edmunds’ departure, but overall, this Buffalo nucleus has the makings of a foremost Super Bowl contender.
OSB Prediction: Buffalo Bills, -2.5 (-110)
Is Aaron Rodgers Ready to Pilot the Jets Offense?
Below you can see the latest NFL over/under betting odds for Monday’s showdown between New York and Buffalo:
- Over 46.5 (-110)
- Under 46.5 (-110)
This is an incredibly tough decision. On the one hand, we want to respect the talent under center in this matchup. Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers are two of the five best quarterbacks in the league. Both should have their teams routinely cracking the 25-point benchmark.
On the other hand, we can’t shake the feeling that Week 1 could get ugly. The Jets are banged up and relatively new to each other. The Bills will be testing out running back James Cook in a larger role and have questions in their receiving corps after the top-two options.
Inevitably, we’re throwing caution to the wind. If this over/under mark exceeded 50 points, we’d be more hesitant to work the “over.” Even now, the Bills’ passing defense is talented enough to make this pick look stupid. But when both Allen and Rodgers are involved, we have no choice other than to bet the “over.”
OSB Prediction: Over 46.5 (-110)
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