NFL Draft 2021 Betting Picks

Quinn Allen
By , Updated on: Apr 29, 2021 12:00 AM
NFL Draft 2021 Betting Picks

Basically, everyone knows how popular the NFL is to bet on. Whether it's weekly point spread wagers, playoff futures, or Super Bowl winners, every event is a caps-lock DRAW. This includes the NFL draft.

Sure, it might not be the most popular football event to wager on. But it still beats out most major games or series in the NBA, NHL and MLB. In particular, the NFL draft is a prop-betting gold mine, not unlike the Super Bowl props market.

From choosing who gets drafted in a specific slot to betting on the overall draft range to wagering on the first player to get grabbed at each position, you have a breadth of fun investments to make. Naturally, with the 2021 NFL draft just around the corner, we have our own NFL draft picks to drop for your enjoyment.

To kick things off, here are the odds for who will go with the No. 1 pick, courtesy of Bovada:

No. 1 SelectionBovada
Trevor Lawrence-100000
Zach Wilson+1800
Justin Fields+2800
Penei Sewell+10000
Trey Lance+10000
Mac Jones+12500
J'Marr Chase+15000
Kyle PItts+15000
DeVonta Smith+25000
Rashawn Slater+25000
Micah Parsons+25000
Kyle Leatherwood+50000
Gregory Rousseau+50000
Najee Harris+50000
Jaylen Waddle+50000
Patrick Surtain II+50000

Like always, make sure you're double-checking these NFL draft odds before deciding on a wager, as they will shift between now and the start of the festivities.

2021 NFL Draft Betting Breakdown

  • When: Thursday, April 29 - Saturday, May 1
  • Time: 8 p.m. EST
  • Where: Cleveland, Ohio
  • Watch: ESPN

Who Will the Jaguars Select at No. 1?

As you can tell from the odds above, this isn't really much of a decision: The answer is Trevor Lawrence.

Though sportsbooks are still laying lines for others, they are a waste of your money. Lawrence has been billed as the most transcendent QB prospect in quite some time, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are nothing if not desperate for a cornerstone under center.

OSB Prediction: Trevor Lawrence (-100000)

Trevor Lawrence To be the No. 1 pick
Bovada
-100000

Who Will the Jets Select at No. 2?

Check out the odds for who the New York Jets will select with the No. 2 pick:

No. 2 PickBovada
Zach Wilson-5000
Justin Fields+1000
Trey Lance+2800
Mac Jones+3300
Penei Sewell+5000
J'Marr Chase+4500
Kyle PItts+5000
Trevor Lawrence+6600
Micah Parsons+12500
Rashawn Slater+12500
DeVonta Smith+25000
Kyle Leatherwood+25000
Gregory Rousseau+25000
Jaylen Waddle+25000
Patrick Surtain II+25000
Najee Harris+50000

Pencil this in as another no-brainer. The Jets traded quarterback Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers because they are "all in" on BYU's Zach Wilson, according to multiple reports. Odd things can happen on NFL draft night, but this feels fait accompli.

sam darnold nfl draft odds

Dark-horse hunters will point to Wilson's absurd rise-up draft boards over the past year as evidence the Jets could go another direction. He wasn't even considered a top-50 prospect ahead of this season. Still, he provides a mix of mobility and playmaking. If his skill set pans out at the next level, he has a chance to be the best player in the class—including over Lawrence.

OSB Prediction: Zach Wilson (-5000)

Zach Wilson To be the No. 2 pick
Bovada
-5000

Who Will the 49ers Select at No. 3?

Check out the odds for who the San Francisco 49ers will select with the No. 3 pick:

No. 3 PickBovada
Justin Fields-150
Mac Jones+130
Trey Lance+450
Zach Wilson+3500
Kyle PItts+3500
J'Marr Chase+10000
Penei Sewell+15000
Trevor Lawrence+40000
Micah Parsons+40000
Rashawn Slater+40000
DeVonta Smith+40000
Patrick Surtain II+40000
Kyle Leatherwood+50000
Gregory Rousseau+50000
Jaylen Waddle+50000
Najee Harris+50000

Misdirection abounds here. We know the Niners traded up to No. 3 so they could select a QB. But there is some debate over which QB.

The current rumor mill would have you believe they're smitten with Mac Jones. That might be true. But Justin Fields has been considered a consensus top-three pick for almost a year. If the Niners really preferred Jones, they probably could have forked over less value and traded up to a lower spot in the draft.

At -150, Fields provides great value in what, really, should be an effortless decision. For anyone inclined to roll the dice for a higher return, we get it. But Jones isn't an enticing enough selection at +130.

OSB Prediction: Justin Fields (-150)

Justin Fields To be the No. 3 pick
Bovada
-150

Which Player Will Definitely Be Drafted Top 5?

Check out the odds for which players will definitely be selected with a top-five pick:

Drafted Top 5Bovada
Justin Fields-500
Mac Jones-400
Kyle PItts-160
Trey Lance-150
J'Marr Chase-125
Penei Sewell+110
Rashawn Slater+250
Micah Parsons+700
Patrick Surtain II+1000
Jaycee Horn+1400
Kwity Paye+1400
Jaylen Waddle+1600
DeVonta Smith+1600
Jaelan Phillips+2200
Christian Darrisaw+5000
Travis Etienne+10000
Tevin Jenkins+10000
Najee Harris+10000
Gregory Rousseau+10000
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah+10000
Caleb Farley+12500

You'll notice Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson aren't on here. That's how certain oddsmakers are they will be going in the top five.

Mac Jones (-400) and Justin Fields (-500) are more interesting cases. We recommend steering clear of the former. If he doesn't go to the Niners at No. 3, he probably doesn't get picked in the top five. Fields' top-five case is more of a formality, but it's up to you whether -500 is worth an investment.

We like Penei Sewell (+110), an offensive tackle out of Oregon, for this prop. He was considered a top-five lock until the Cincinnati Bengals beefed up their O-Line in free agency. We still think they end up taking him at No. 5. They need all the protection for franchise QB Joe Burrow they can get.

penei sewell nfl draft odds

OSB Prediction: Penei Sewell (+110)

Penei Sewell To be draft within the top five
Bovada
+110

Who Will Be The First Non-QB Drafted?

Check out the odds on who will be the first non-quarterback taken in the draft:

This steps on the toes of our last selection. We know quarterbacks are going with the first three picks. That makes the Atlanta Falcons at No. 4 the swing team. 

There's a chance Atlanta trades out of this selection. That could throw things for a whirl. But we think they'll take a stab at selecting Matt Ryan's successor. Whether that's Justin Fields or Trey Lance, we firmly believe they'll snag a signal-caller.

That, in turn, brings us to the Bengals at No. 5. And that makes this a great chance to capitalize on a +275 for Penei Sewell.

OSB Prediction: Penei Sewell (+275)

Penei Sewell To be the first non-QB pick
Bovada
+275

How Many Offensive Players Get Drafted in Round 1?

Check out the odds for how many offensive players will be taken in Round 1:

OverBovadaBovadaUnder
18.5-115-12518.5

Let's not mince words. You want the over. Just given how many offensive players are going alone in the top 10, we're probably looking at 20 total being taken off the board in Round 1.

OSB Prediction: Over 18.5 (-115)

Over 18.5 offensive players drafted in Round 1
Bovada
-115

How Many Running Backs Get Drafted in Round 1?

Check out the odds for how many running backs will be taken in Round 1:

OverBovadaBovadaUnder
1.5+375-6501.5

This is a fun stab-in-the-dark pick. Najee Harris is considered the only running back to certainly get taken in Round 1, and he's expected to go within the top 20. So the question becomes: Will another running back be selected with one of the final 12 selections?

And our answer is yes, just because it pays out almost 4-to-1.

OSB Prediction: Over 1.5 (+375)

Over 1.5 running backs drafted in Round 1
Bovada
+375

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Meet the author

Quinn Allen

Quinn Allen leverages his broadcast journalism degree and passion for sports in his betting previews and analysis. Based in Kelowna, Canada, he has emerged as an expert voice with picks featured on OSB, MTS, SBD, and as a ClutchPoints editor. With a lifelong fandom of...

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