Many hoped at the start of the NFL season that we would end up here: in the 2024 NFL playoffs, with the Buffalo Bills and reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs facing off a heartbeat away from Super Bowl 58. But few could have predicted how we’d end up here.
- What: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, January 21, 2024
- Time: 6:30 p.m. eastern standard time
- Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York
- Point Spread: Bills (-2.5), Chiefs (+2.5)
The circumstances under which we’ve arrived at this divisional showdown are largely unpredictable. While the Chiefs enter with a huge dose of cachet, their offense has also lagged for much of the year. The Bills looked on the verge of implosion in the middle of the regular season. They weren’t even guaranteed a playoff spot until the final two weeks. And yet, the latest NFL online betting odds actually have Buffalo as the favorite to beat Kansas City:
| Favorite |  | | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -144 | +122 | Buffalo Bills |
Keep double-checking these online NFL playoff betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Bills vs. Chiefs odds are accurate entering Wednesday, January 17. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on January 21.
This is a game that could see tons of movement on the betting lines before it starts. Both the moneyline and the point spread are tight enough that it’s clear oddsmakers and the markets are still trying to figure it out.
Buffalo’s performance this season has a lot to do with that mystery. Are the Bills back? Are they merely on temporary leave as Kings of Inconsistency? Will quarterback Josh Allen and the offense protect the football? Does the defense have the juice to slow down Postseason Patrick Mahomes?
At the same time, the Chiefs have also been tough to figure out. Their identity that won them Super Bowl 57 is not the one that’s carried them through this season. Is the defense for real? Does the offense have another gear? This game could be an all-timer. Let’s dig into it.
Don’t Read Too Much Into the Buffalo Bills Entering as Favorites Over the Kansas City Chiefs
Entering as odds-on favorites to beat the Chiefs is a big deal for the Bills. Especially given all they have been through this season. But the current lines do not imply some comfortable decision. They read more like oddsmakers given the slight advantage to the home team.
Buffalo has earned that benefit of the doubt. They have not given up 25 points in a single game since Week 12, and their offense has started cutting down on the turnovers. Hanging 31 points on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card without committing a giveaway and while forcing two turnovers was a dominant display—a reminder that the Bills at their peak are, in fact, contenders.
But so are the Chiefs. Their offense might be weaker; it’s not dead. They just dropped 26 points and racked up over 400 passing yards against the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card.
Make no mistake, Kansas City has challenges on the offensive side. The rushing attack isn’t opening up the play-action possibilities as effectively, and Mahomes isn’t getting to work his magic downfield as often. After averaging 8.5 adjusted yards gained per pass last season, he’s at just 7.0 adjusted yards gained per pass this year.
Even so, that drop-off hasn’t prevented the Chiefs from ranking in the top 10 of both third-down offense and red zone scoring percentage. And more than that, Kansas City’s defense isn’t going anywhere. They are second in points allowed per game and third in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Josh Allen will have to work like a pinpoint surgeon to dissect the Chiefs’ schemes in the middle of the field and in the secondary.
Call us suckers for the reigning champs, but we’re rolling with Kansas City. From our vantage point, they continue to have a higher ceiling.
OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (+122)
It Turns Out the Public Likes Buffalo to Take Down Kansas City, Too
The latest NFL point spread betting lines for Chiefs vs. Bills projects a close call. But the public has chosen a side, and it could cause the line to shift:
- Buffalo Bills, -2.5 (-118)
- Kansas City Chiefs, +2.5 (-102)
As you can tell from the prospective payouts, bettors are flocking towards the Bills’ point spread. If you believe they’ll win outright, we get it. The spread is small enough to take the higher return.
But this also feels like a classic case of the home team getting too much love on a sub-three-point spread. Regardless, when the spread is this small, you’re better off defaulting to your moneyline choice.
OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs, +2.5 (-102)
The Final Score of Chiefs vs. Bills will Be…
Will offense prevail in Chiefs vs. Bills? Or will it be defense? Will it end up being a little of both? The latest NFL playoff over/under betting odds suggest it’ll be the latter:
- Over 45.5 (-110)
- Under 45.5 (-110)
This ultimately goes against our instinct. Both teams are coming off 25-plus point performances in the Wild Card round. But the Chiefs defense has allowed that many points in a single game just once all year. The Bills, conversely, have given up 25 or more points just once since Week 8.
In our estimation, this will be a rock fight—one that’s taking place in sub-30-degree temperatures, with wind speeds in the double digits, both of which are factors that should drive down the final score.
OSB Prediction: Over 45.5 (-110)
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