NFL Playoffs 2023 Picks: San Francisco 49ers will Expose the Dallas Cowboys as Super Bowl Frauds

Dan Favale
By , Updated on: Jan 18, 2023 12:00 AM
Get ready to see the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game.

Perhaps no NFL playoff game entering Divisional Round Weekend is harder to understand than the matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. 

On one side, you have a Niners team with a dominant defense and an offense that continues to defy logic with a rookie third-string quarterback under center in Brock Purdy. On the other side, you have a Cowboys squad that vacillates between dominant and dormant, a true Jekyll and Hyde that just annihilated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card despite missing extra points galore.

Zooming out and looking at the big picture doesn't help settle matters. The Cowboys and 49ers are currently laying almost identical odds to win the 2023 Super Bowl. They are both at once an enigma and, according to the data, absolutely elite.

Without question, this game is the most difficult to predict. As you can tell from the latest NFL online betting odds over at Bovada, though, linemakers are giving the advantage to the Niners:

FavoriteBovadaBovadaUnderdog
San Francisco 49ers-176+148Dallas Cowboys

Please make sure you are double-checking these NFL playoff betting odds until you actually make your picks for Cowboys vs 49ers. Our 49ers vs. Cowboys betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, January 18. That gives linemakers plenty of time to make adjustments based on the latest betting trends before the game kicks off on Sunday, January 21, at 6:30 p.m. EST.

Just so you know: You don't have to worry about having the most accurate Cowboys vs. 49ers betting odds if you've already signed up with the right sportsbook. And luckily, landing with the right odds provider is a breeze if you check out our reviews of the top online sportsbooks. We have jam-packed each and every one with all the information you'll need to find the best NFL playoff online betting sites around!

Back to the question at hand: Should the Niners be comfortable favorites to beat the Cowboys? Which team will cover the point spread? And how should you view the over/under betting odds for the Cowboys vs. 49ers game? We've got our latest NFL playoff picks below!

The San Francisco 49ers are Laying Excellent Value Against the Dallas Cowboys

Count us among those who underestimated the Niners offense entering the postseason. Though Brock Purdy had showcased impressive arm strength and accuracy to close the regular season, we thought opposing defenses would be able to rattle a third-string rookie quarterback. We also were pretty sure San Francisco would try limiting his exposure by relying heavily on the run game.

That didn’t happen in the Wild Card Round. And we’re starting to think it won’t ever happen.

The Niners have routinely eclipsed 30 points per game with Purdy under center, and it doesn’t feel like a mirage. He has done a fantastic job spreading the ball out to San Francisco’s smattering of weapons, including Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel.

This will be a lot for the Cowboys to handle. And while they do have some playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, they don’t have the personnel to stop both levels of offense. Dallas often sells out their rushing defense to limit the passing game; they were in the bottom 10 of many rushing metrics on the defensive end during the regular season.

Expect McCaffrey to have a huge day, both on the ground and through the air. But don't be surprised if the Niners wind up tearing up the Cowboys’ secondary, too. Purdy knows how to use play-action to open up the long ball, and Dallas has struggled to hang downfield.

OSB Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (-176)

San Francisco 49ers To beat the Dallas Cowboys
Bovada
-176

Don't be Tempted by the Cowboys' Odds to Cover the Point Spread

Below you can see the latest NFL point spread betting odds for Cowboys vs. 49ers:

  • San Francisco 49ers, -3 (-118)
  • Dallas Cowboys, +3 (-102)

Just looking at the returns on each spread, you can tell oddsmakers don't have much faith in the Cowboys. And we don't blame them.

Giving three points almost feels obligatory. We're talking about two of the NFC's most elite teams on paper, after all. But the Niners have achieved a level of play on both sides of the ball the Cowboys seldom reach. Dallas rarely seems to have it going on both sides of the field. Their dual-performance against the Bucs was a rarity.

Regardless, three points is too small for our tastes. Relative to how well the Niners have been scoring the ball during the Purdy era, this feels like a game they'll be able to take by more than field goal.

OSB Prediction: San Francisco 49ers, -3 (-118)

San Francisco 49ers To cover the point spread vs. the Dallas Cowboys
Bovada
-118

It Still Doesn't Seem Like Linemakers have Learned How to Properly Treat the San Francisco 49ers Offense

Here are the latest NFL over/under betting odds for 49ers vs. Cowboys: 

  • Over 46.5 (-110)
  • Under 46.5 (-110)

"Defense" is the first thing that springs to mind when someone references the Niners. And rightfully so. But the over/under lines for their games are routinely too low as a result.

Granted, we understand the attraction to sub-47-point thresholds. San Francisco usually likes to control the clock, and their quarterback situation isn't supposed to inspire confidence. At the same time, we need to face facts: Starting Purdy isn't actually a weakness. The Niners are averaging over 32 points per game since Week 11. Higher-octane offense is their new normal. We'll take the over.

OSB Prediction: Over 46.5 (-110)

49ers and Cowboys To score over 46.5 points combined
Bovada
-110

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Meet the author

Dan Favale

Dan first began writing about sports back in 2011. At the time, his expertise lied in the NBA and NFL. More than one decade, that remains the case. But he's also expanded his catalog to include extensive knowledge and analysis on the NHL, MLB, tennis, NASCAR, college ba...

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